Modeling the Future of the Greenland Ice Sheet
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- Visualizations by:
- Cindy Starr
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- Scientific consulting by:
- Andy Aschwanden
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- Produced by:
- Katie Jepson
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- Videography:
- Jefferson Beck
- View full credits
In the next 50 years, the model shows that melting at the present rate could contribute one to four inches to global sea level rise. This number jumps to five to13 inches by 2100 and 19 to 63 inches by 2200. These numbers are considerably higher than previous estimates, which forecasted up to 35 inches of sea level rise by 2200
The updated model is the first to include outlet glaciers — river-like bodies of ice that connect to the ocean. Outlet glaciers play a key role in how ice sheets melt, but previous models lacked the data to adequately represent their complex flow patterns. The study found that melting outlet glaciers could account for up to 40% of the ice mass lost from Greenland in the next 200 years.
By incorporating ice thickness data from IceBridge and identifying sources of statistical uncertainty within the model, the study creates a more accurate picture of how human-generated greenhouse gas emissions and a warming climate may affect Greenland in the future
Credits
Please give credit for this item to:
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
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Visualizer
- Cindy Starr (Global Science and Technology, Inc.) [Lead]
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Writer
- Jessica Merzdorf (Telophase)
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Scientist
- Andy Aschwanden (Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks) [Lead]
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Producers
- Katie Jepson (KBR Wyle Services, LLC) [Lead]
- LK Ward (KBRwyle)
- Patrick Lynch (NASA/GSFC)
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Associate producer
- Kathryn Mersmann (KBR Wyle Services, LLC)
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Narrator
- Katie Jepson (KBR Wyle Services, LLC)
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Videographer
- Jefferson Beck (KBR Wyle Services, LLC) [Lead]
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Technical support
- Aaron E. Lepsch (ADNET Systems, Inc.)
Missions
This visualization is related to the following missions:Series
This visualization can be found in the following series:Related pages
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ID: 13300 Produced Video
New NASA Images Show Summer Melting In The Arctic Live Shots
Read moreClick HERE for quick link to audio soundbites.Click for quick link to B-ROLL for these live shotsClick for quick link to canned interview with NASA Scientist Tom NeumannClick for quick link to canned interview with NASA scientist Nathan KurtzClick for quick lin to canned interview in Spanish with NASA Scientist Edil Sepulveda || Large Summer Ice Loss In The Arctic, With More Melting to Come New NASA Images Show Melting As Summer Heat Bakes The ArcticIt’s been a summer of record temperatures — and even the world’s coldest places have felt the heat. As the high temperatures bake the Arctic, the Greenland ice sheet is experiencing extreme levels of ice loss. Ice on the sea surrounding the Arctic also continues to retreat. Chat with NASA scientists on Friday, Sept. 6 from 6:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. EST to find out how the latest heatwave in Europe may impact the Arctic and how these dramatic changes in the Arctic can affect you. Arctic ice both on land and sea are melting at a rapid rate, and newer ice isn't sticking around for long. The rising temperatures are causing younger, thinner ice to cover less area than in the past. Since 1980, the Arctic has lost enough sea ice volume to equal all the water in Lake Superior — one of the largest lakes in the world. NASA is keeping a close eye on the Arctic from the ground, the air, and space to help understand how Arctic temperature change is affecting weather all around the globe. Whether 2019 will set a new record for Arctic ice loss remains to be seen, but it is tracking to be one of the top five lowest in the 40-year satellite record.To schedule an interview, please fill out this form: https://forms.gle/x6CXSkYwAfZsPn1Z6Interview Location: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, MDSuggested Questions1. This summer has been unusually warm around the world, but particularly in the Arctic. What do the latest images show us about this year’s summer in the Arctic? 2. One of the biggest stories this summer was the extreme melting in Greenland. How unusual has this summer been for the glaciers on land? 3. NASA’s newest Earth-observing satellite is measuring the sea ice thickness in the Arctic with unprecedented detail. What surprising things has it already discovered? 4.How do changes in the Arctic impact us when the Arctic is so far away?5. Where can we learn more? Satellite Coordinates: HD Satellite Coordinates for G17-K18/Lower: Galaxy 17 Ku-band Xp 18 Slot Lower| 91.0 ° W Longitude | DL 12051.0 MHz | Vertical Polarity | QPSK/DVB-S | FEC 3/4 | SR 13.235 Mbps | DR 18.2954 MHz | HD 720p | Format MPEG2 | Chroma Level 4:2:0 | Audio EmbeddedQuestions? Contact michelle.z.handleman@nasa.gov or 301-286-0918Check out this episode of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrNRr4ChKWg&list=PL2aBZuCeDwlQqXdZ_hXEX0OSI1vX_p9Cj&index " target="_blank">NASA Explorers all about sea ice and why it's important. ||
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ID: 4721 Visualization
Three Simulated Greenland Ice Sheet Response Scenarios: 2008 - 2300
Read moreThe Greenland Ice Sheet holds enough water to raise the world’s sea level by over 7 meters (23 feet). Rising atmosphere and ocean temperatures have led to an ice loss equivalent to over a centimeter increase in global mean sea-level between 1991 and 2015. Large outlet glaciers, rivers of ice moving to the sea, drain the ice from the interior of Greenland and cause the outer margins of the ice sheet to recede. Improvements in measuring the ice thickness in ice sheets is enabling better simulation of the flow in outlet glaciers, which is key to predicting the retreat of ice sheets into the future.Recently, a simulation of the effects of outlet glacier flow on ice sheet thickness coupled with improved data and comprehensive climate modeling for differing future climate scenarios has been used to estimate Greenland’s contribution to sea-level over the next millennium. Greenland could contribute 5–34 cm (2-13 inches) to sea-level by 2100 and 11–162 cm (4-64 inches) by 2200, with outlet glaciers contributing 19–40 % of the total mass loss. The analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, followed by ice dynamics. Uncertainties in ocean conditions play a minor role, particularly in the long term. Greenland will very likely become ice-free within a millennium without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.Three visualizations of the evolution of the Jakobshavn region of the Greenland Ice Sheet between 2008 and 2300 based on three different climate scenarios are shown below. The camera zooms in slowly as the ice sheet retreats and pulls out to a view of the entire ice sheet in the year 2300. Each scenario is described briefly in the caption under each visualization. Each of the three visualizations are provided with a date, colorbar and a distance scale as well as without. The regions shown in a violet color are exposed areas of the Greenland bed that were covered by the ice sheet in 2008.The data sets used for these animations are the control (“CTRL”) simulations and were produced with the open-source Parallel Ice Sheet Model (www.pism-docs.org). All data sets for this study are publicly available at https://arcticdata.io (doi:10.18739/A2Z60C21V). ||
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ID: 4722 Visualization
Jakobshavn Regional View of Three Simulated Greenland Ice Sheet Response Scenarios: 2008 - 2300
Read moreThe Greenland Ice Sheet holds enough water to raise the world’s sea level by over 7 meters (23 feet). Rising atmosphere and ocean temperatures have led to an ice loss equivalent to over a centimeter increase in global mean sea-level between 1991 and 2015. Large outlet glaciers, rivers of ice moving to the sea, drain the ice from the interior of Greenland and cause the outer margins of the ice sheet to recede. Improvements in measuring the ice thickness in ice sheets is enabling better simulation of the flow in outlet glaciers, which is key to predicting the retreat of ice sheets into the future.Recently, a simulation of the effects of outlet glacier flow on ice sheet thickness coupled with improved data and comprehensive climate modeling for differing future climate scenarios has been used to estimate Greenland’s contribution to sea-level over the next millennium. Greenland could contribute 5–34 cm (2-13 inches) to sea-level by 2100 and 11–162 cm (4-64 inches) by 2200, with outlet glaciers contributing 19–40 % of the total mass loss. The analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, followed by ice dynamics. Uncertainties in ocean conditions play a minor role, particularly in the long term. Greenland will very likely become ice-free within a millennium without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.Three visualizations of the evolution of the Jakobshavn region of the Greenland Ice Sheet between 2008 and 2300 based on three different climate scenarios are shown below. Each scenario is described briefly in the caption under each visualization. Each of the three visualizations are provided with a date, colorbar and a distance scale as well as without. The regions shown in a violet color are exposed areas of the Greenland bed that were covered by the ice sheet in 2008.The data sets used for these animations are the control (“CTRL”) simulations and were produced with the open-source Parallel Ice Sheet Model (www.pism-docs.org). All data sets for this study are publicly available at https://arcticdata.io (doi:10.18739/A2Z60C21V). ||
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ID: 4727 Visualization
Greenland View of Three Simulated Greenland Ice Sheet Response Scenarios: 2008 - 2300
Read moreThe Greenland Ice Sheet holds enough water to raise the world’s sea level by over 7 meters (23 feet). Rising atmosphere and ocean temperatures have led to an ice loss equivalent to over a centimeter increase in global mean sea-level between 1991 and 2015. Large outlet glaciers, rivers of ice moving to the sea, drain the ice from the interior of Greenland and cause the outer margins of the ice sheet to recede. Improvements in measuring the ice thickness in ice sheets is enabling better simulation of the flow in outlet glaciers, which is key to predicting the retreat of ice sheets into the future.Recently, a simulation of the effects of outlet glacier flow on ice sheet thickness coupled with improved data and comprehensive climate modeling for differing future climate scenarios has been used to estimate Greenland’s contribution to sea-level over the next millennium. Greenland could contribute 5–34 cm (2-13 inches) to sea-level by 2100 and 11–162 cm (4-64 inches) by 2200, with outlet glaciers contributing 19–40 % of the total mass loss. The analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, followed by ice dynamics. Uncertainties in ocean conditions play a minor role, particularly in the long term. Greenland will very likely become ice-free within a millennium without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.Three visualizations of the evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet between 2008 and 2300 based on three different climate scenarios are shown below. Each scenario is described briefly in the caption under each visualization. Each of the three visualizations are provided with a date and colorbar as well as without. The regions shown in a violet color are exposed areas of the Greenland bed that were covered by the ice sheet in 2008.The data sets used for these animations are the control (“CTRL”) simulations and were produced with the open-source Parallel Ice Sheet Model (www.pism-docs.org). All data sets for this study are publicly available at https://arcticdata.io (doi:10.18739/A2Z60C21V). ||
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