{ "id": 13233, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/13233/", "page_type": "Produced Video", "title": "Modeling the Future of the Greenland Ice Sheet", "description": "Music: Tides by Jon Cotton [PRS], Ben Niblett [PRS]Complete transcript available. || Greenland_Still_Two.jpg (1920x1080) [941.0 KB] || Greenland_Still_Two_searchweb.png (320x180) [152.3 KB] || Greenland_Still_Two_thm.png (80x40) [8.8 KB] || 13233_Greenland_Outlet_FINAL.mp4 (1920x1080) [253.2 MB] || 13233_Greenland_Outlet_FINAL.mov (1920x1080) [3.4 GB] || 13233_Greenland_Outlet_FINAL.webm (1920x1080) [17.2 MB] || 13233_Greenland_Outlet_FINAL_VX-303985.webm (960x540) [54.0 MB] || GreenlandOutletModel_Fine_V2.en_US.srt [2.9 KB] || GreenlandOutletModel_Fine_V2.en_US.vtt [2.9 KB] || ", "release_date": "2019-06-19T14:00:00-04:00", "update_date": "2023-05-03T13:45:53.519110-04:00", "main_image": { "id": 395200, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a013200/a013233/Greenland_Still_Two.jpg", "filename": "Greenland_Still_Two.jpg", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "Music: Tides by Jon Cotton [PRS], Ben Niblett [PRS]Complete transcript available.", "width": 1920, "height": 1080, "pixels": 2073600 }, "main_video": { "id": 395201, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a013200/a013233/13233_Greenland_Outlet_FINAL.mp4", "filename": "13233_Greenland_Outlet_FINAL.mp4", "media_type": "Movie", "alt_text": "Music: Tides by Jon Cotton [PRS], Ben Niblett [PRS]Complete transcript available.", "width": 1920, "height": 1080, "pixels": 2073600 }, "main_credits": { "Produced by": [ { "name": "Katie Jepson", "employer": "USRA" } ], "Visualizations by": [ { "name": "Cindy Starr", "employer": "Global Science and Technology, Inc." } ], "Scientific consulting by": [ { "name": "Andy Aschwanden", "employer": "NASA/ARC" } ], "Videography": [ { "name": "Jefferson Beck", "employer": "USRA" } ] }, "progress": "Complete", "media_groups": [ { "id": 323411, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/13233/#media_group_323411", "widget": "Video player", "title": "", "caption": "", "description": "Music: Tides by Jon Cotton [PRS], Ben Niblett [PRS]

Complete transcript available.

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In the next 50 years, the model shows that melting at the present rate could contribute one to four inches to global sea level rise. This number jumps to five to13 inches by 2100 and 19 to 63 inches by 2200. These numbers are considerably higher than previous estimates, which forecasted up to 35 inches of sea level rise by 2200

The updated model is the first to include outlet glaciers — river-like bodies of ice that connect to the ocean. Outlet glaciers play a key role in how ice sheets melt, but previous models lacked the data to adequately represent their complex flow patterns. The study found that melting outlet glaciers could account for up to 40% of the ice mass lost from Greenland in the next 200 years.

By incorporating ice thickness data from IceBridge and identifying sources of statistical uncertainty within the model, the study creates a more accurate picture of how human-generated greenhouse gas emissions and a warming climate may affect Greenland in the future", "items": [], "extra_data": {} } ], "studio": "gms", "funding_sources": [ "PAO" ], "credits": [ { "role": "Producer", "people": [ { "name": "Katie Jepson", "employer": "USRA" }, { "name": "Patrick Lynch", "employer": "NASA/GSFC" }, { "name": "LK Ward", "employer": "USRA" } ] }, { "role": "Writer", "people": [ { "name": "Jessica Merzdorf", "employer": "Telophase" } ] }, { "role": "Visualizer", "people": [ { "name": "Cindy Starr", "employer": "Global Science and Technology, Inc." } ] }, { "role": "Scientist", "people": [ { "name": "Andy Aschwanden", "employer": "NASA/ARC" } ] }, { "role": "Videographer", "people": [ { "name": "Jefferson Beck", "employer": "USRA" } ] }, { "role": "Narrator", "people": [ { "name": "Katie Jepson", "employer": "USRA" } ] }, { "role": "Technical support", "people": [ { "name": "Aaron E. Lepsch", "employer": "ADNET Systems, Inc." } ] }, { "role": "Associate producer", "people": [ { "name": "Kathryn Mersmann", "employer": "USRA" } ] } ], "missions": [ "Operation IceBridge" ], "series": [ "Narrated Movies" ], "tapes": [], "papers": [], "datasets": [], "nasa_science_categories": [ "Earth" ], "keywords": [ "Greenland", "Ice Sheets", "Location", "Model Simulation", "Operation IceBridge", "Sea Level" ], "recommended_pages": [], "related": [ { "id": 13300, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/13300/", "page_type": "Produced Video", "title": "New NASA Images Show Summer Melting In The Arctic Live Shots", "description": "Click HERE for quick link to audio soundbites.Click for quick link to B-ROLL for these live shotsClick for quick link to canned interview with NASA Scientist Tom NeumannClick for quick link to canned interview with NASA scientist Nathan KurtzClick for quick lin to canned interview in Spanish with NASA Scientist Edil Sepulveda || Screen_Shot_2019-08-28_at_3.03.24_PM.png (2956x450) [1.9 MB] || Screen_Shot_2019-08-28_at_3.03.24_PM_print.jpg (1024x155) [36.0 KB] || Screen_Shot_2019-08-28_at_3.03.24_PM_searchweb.png (320x180) [75.9 KB] || Screen_Shot_2019-08-28_at_3.03.24_PM_thm.png (80x40) [4.9 KB] || ", "release_date": "2019-08-29T06:10:00-04:00", "update_date": "2019-10-02T13:51:07-04:00", "main_image": { "id": 393343, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a013300/a013300/Screen_Shot_2019-08-28_at_3.03.24_PM_print.jpg", "filename": "Screen_Shot_2019-08-28_at_3.03.24_PM_print.jpg", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "Click HERE for quick link to audio soundbites.Click for quick link to B-ROLL for these live shotsClick for quick link to canned interview with NASA Scientist Tom NeumannClick for quick link to canned interview with NASA scientist Nathan KurtzClick for quick lin to canned interview in Spanish with NASA Scientist Edil Sepulveda", "width": 1024, "height": 155, "pixels": 158720 } } ], "sources": [ { "id": 4721, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4721/", "page_type": "Visualization", "title": "Three Simulated Greenland Ice Sheet Response Scenarios: 2008 - 2300", "description": "The Greenland Ice Sheet holds enough water to raise the world’s sea level by over 7 meters (23 feet). Rising atmosphere and ocean temperatures have led to an ice loss equivalent to over a centimeter increase in global mean sea-level between 1991 and 2015. Large outlet glaciers, rivers of ice moving to the sea, drain the ice from the interior of Greenland and cause the outer margins of the ice sheet to recede. Improvements in measuring the ice thickness in ice sheets is enabling better simulation of the flow in outlet glaciers, which is key to predicting the retreat of ice sheets into the future.Recently, a simulation of the effects of outlet glacier flow on ice sheet thickness coupled with improved data and comprehensive climate modeling for differing future climate scenarios has been used to estimate Greenland’s contribution to sea-level over the next millennium. Greenland could contribute 5–34 cm (2-13 inches) to sea-level by 2100 and 11–162 cm (4-64 inches) by 2200, with outlet glaciers contributing 19–40 % of the total mass loss. The analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, followed by ice dynamics. Uncertainties in ocean conditions play a minor role, particularly in the long term. Greenland will very likely become ice-free within a millennium without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.Three visualizations of the evolution of the Jakobshavn region of the Greenland Ice Sheet between 2008 and 2300 based on three different climate scenarios are shown below. The camera zooms in slowly as the ice sheet retreats and pulls out to a view of the entire ice sheet in the year 2300. Each scenario is described briefly in the caption under each visualization. Each of the three visualizations are provided with a date, colorbar and a distance scale as well as without. The regions shown in a violet color are exposed areas of the Greenland bed that were covered by the ice sheet in 2008.The data sets used for these animations are the control (“CTRL”) simulations and were produced with the open-source Parallel Ice Sheet Model (www.pism-docs.org). All data sets for this study are publicly available at https://arcticdata.io (doi:10.18739/A2Z60C21V). || ", "release_date": "2019-06-19T14:00:00-04:00", "update_date": "2025-03-10T00:08:10.018949-04:00", "main_image": { "id": 395047, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a004700/a004721/Greenland_RCP_45_2008_2300_comp.0282_print.jpg", "filename": "Greenland_RCP_45_2008_2300_comp.0282_print.jpg", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "Above is a visualization of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 2008 to 2300 based on the RCP 4.5 climate scenario. This mid-range scenario is based on the assumption that emissions will stabilize by the year 2100 and that forest lands will expand.This video is also available on our YouTube channel.", "width": 1024, "height": 576, "pixels": 589824 } }, { "id": 4722, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4722/", "page_type": "Visualization", "title": "Jakobshavn Regional View of Three Simulated Greenland Ice Sheet Response Scenarios: 2008 - 2300", "description": "The Greenland Ice Sheet holds enough water to raise the world’s sea level by over 7 meters (23 feet). Rising atmosphere and ocean temperatures have led to an ice loss equivalent to over a centimeter increase in global mean sea-level between 1991 and 2015. Large outlet glaciers, rivers of ice moving to the sea, drain the ice from the interior of Greenland and cause the outer margins of the ice sheet to recede. Improvements in measuring the ice thickness in ice sheets is enabling better simulation of the flow in outlet glaciers, which is key to predicting the retreat of ice sheets into the future.Recently, a simulation of the effects of outlet glacier flow on ice sheet thickness coupled with improved data and comprehensive climate modeling for differing future climate scenarios has been used to estimate Greenland’s contribution to sea-level over the next millennium. Greenland could contribute 5–34 cm (2-13 inches) to sea-level by 2100 and 11–162 cm (4-64 inches) by 2200, with outlet glaciers contributing 19–40 % of the total mass loss. The analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, followed by ice dynamics. Uncertainties in ocean conditions play a minor role, particularly in the long term. Greenland will very likely become ice-free within a millennium without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.Three visualizations of the evolution of the Jakobshavn region of the Greenland Ice Sheet between 2008 and 2300 based on three different climate scenarios are shown below. Each scenario is described briefly in the caption under each visualization. Each of the three visualizations are provided with a date, colorbar and a distance scale as well as without. The regions shown in a violet color are exposed areas of the Greenland bed that were covered by the ice sheet in 2008.The data sets used for these animations are the control (“CTRL”) simulations and were produced with the open-source Parallel Ice Sheet Model (www.pism-docs.org). All data sets for this study are publicly available at https://arcticdata.io (doi:10.18739/A2Z60C21V). || ", "release_date": "2019-06-19T14:00:00-04:00", "update_date": "2025-03-10T00:08:13.682414-04:00", "main_image": { "id": 395093, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a004700/a004722/Jakobshavn_RCP_26_2008_2300_comp.0282_print.jpg", "filename": "Jakobshavn_RCP_26_2008_2300_comp.0282_print.jpg", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "Above is a visualization of the Jakobshavn region of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 2008 to 2300 based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 climate scenario. This is the best case scenario for limiting greenhouse gasses and assumes that emissions will peak by mid-century and decline thereafter.This video is also available on our YouTube channel.", "width": 1024, "height": 576, "pixels": 589824 } }, { "id": 4727, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4727/", "page_type": "Visualization", "title": "Greenland View of Three Simulated Greenland Ice Sheet Response Scenarios: 2008 - 2300", "description": "The Greenland Ice Sheet holds enough water to raise the world’s sea level by over 7 meters (23 feet). Rising atmosphere and ocean temperatures have led to an ice loss equivalent to over a centimeter increase in global mean sea-level between 1991 and 2015. Large outlet glaciers, rivers of ice moving to the sea, drain the ice from the interior of Greenland and cause the outer margins of the ice sheet to recede. Improvements in measuring the ice thickness in ice sheets is enabling better simulation of the flow in outlet glaciers, which is key to predicting the retreat of ice sheets into the future.Recently, a simulation of the effects of outlet glacier flow on ice sheet thickness coupled with improved data and comprehensive climate modeling for differing future climate scenarios has been used to estimate Greenland’s contribution to sea-level over the next millennium. Greenland could contribute 5–34 cm (2-13 inches) to sea-level by 2100 and 11–162 cm (4-64 inches) by 2200, with outlet glaciers contributing 19–40 % of the total mass loss. The analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, followed by ice dynamics. Uncertainties in ocean conditions play a minor role, particularly in the long term. Greenland will very likely become ice-free within a millennium without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.Three visualizations of the evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet between 2008 and 2300 based on three different climate scenarios are shown below. Each scenario is described briefly in the caption under each visualization. Each of the three visualizations are provided with a date and colorbar as well as without. The regions shown in a violet color are exposed areas of the Greenland bed that were covered by the ice sheet in 2008.The data sets used for these animations are the control (“CTRL”) simulations and were produced with the open-source Parallel Ice Sheet Model (www.pism-docs.org). All data sets for this study are publicly available at https://arcticdata.io (doi:10.18739/A2Z60C21V). || ", "release_date": "2019-06-19T14:00:00-04:00", "update_date": "2025-03-10T00:08:16.950815-04:00", "main_image": { "id": 395149, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a004700/a004727/Greenland_RCP_26_2008_2300_comp.0282_print.jpg", "filename": "Greenland_RCP_26_2008_2300_comp.0282_print.jpg", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "Above is a visualization of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 2008 to 2300 based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 climate scenario. This is the best case scenario for limiting greenhouse gasses and assumes that emissions will peak by mid-century and decline thereafter.This video is also available on our YouTube channel.", "width": 1024, "height": 576, "pixels": 589824 } } ], "products": [], "newer_versions": [], "older_versions": [], "alternate_versions": [] }