Earth ID: 4095

Potential Evaporation in North America Through 2100

Visualizations by Trent L. Schindler Released on August 9, 2013

This animation shows the projected increase in potential evaporation during the fire season through the year 2100, relative to 1980, based on the combined results of multiple climate models: MERRA data for 1980-2010 and an ensemble of 20 climate models for 2010-2100. The maximum increase across North America is about 1 mm/day by 2100. This concept, potential evaporation, is a measure of drying potential or "fire weather." An average increase of 1 mm/day over the whole year is a big change — 1 mm/day increase in PE is considered to be an "extreme" event for fires, similar to the conditions in Colorado in 2012. By these projections, fire years like 2012 would be the new normal in regions like the western US by the end of the 21st century.

Visualization Credits

Trent L. Schindler (USRA): Lead Animator
Alison Schuyler Ogden (NASA/GSFC): Producer
Michelle Handleman (USRA): Producer
Doug C. Morton (NASA/GSFC): Scientist

Please give credit for this item to:
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

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Data Used:

MERRA

Analysis

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Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 also referred to as: CMIP5

Model - IPCC AR5

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Keywords:
SVS >> Climate
SVS >> HDTV
GCMD >> Earth Science >> Climate Indicators >> Fire Weather Indices
GCMD >> Earth Science >> Human Dimensions >> Natural Hazards >> Fires
SVS >> Model Data
SVS >> Hyperwall
SVS >> Climate Change
NASA Science >> Earth
SVS >> 2013 Fires

GCMD keywords can be found on the Internet with the following citation: Olsen, L.M., G. Major, K. Shein, J. Scialdone, S. Ritz, T. Stevens, M. Morahan, A. Aleman, R. Vogel, S. Leicester, H. Weir, M. Meaux, S. Grebas, C.Solomon, M. Holland, T. Northcutt, R. A. Restrepo, R. Bilodeau, 2013. NASA/Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Earth Science Keywords. Version 8.0.0.0.0