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The Coming Storm
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- Visualizations by:
- Greg Shirah
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- Written by:
- Patrick Lynch
- View full credits
In any given year there is a 39 percent chance of one or more major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) making landfall in the continental United States. Although the threat is real, the odds lately have played out in our favor. From 2006 to 2014, no major hurricanes have made landfall. In fact, the current nine-year "drought" is the longest period of time that has passed without a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. since reliable records began in 1850. According to a new NASA study, a string of nine years without a major hurricane landfall is likely to come along only once every 177 years. So what’s behind the recent break? Scientists say it may simply be a matter of luck. Watch the video to see the path of every Atlantic hurricane season storm from 1980 through 2014.
For More Information
See NASA.gov
Credits
Please give credit for this item to:
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio
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Animator
- Greg Shirah (NASA/GSFC) [Lead]
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Writer
- Patrick Lynch (NASA/GSFC) [Lead]
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Scientist
- Timothy Hall (NASA/GSFC GISS)
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Producers
- Jefferson Beck (KBR Wyle Services, LLC)
- Joy Ng (KBR Wyle Services, LLC)
Related Pages
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ID: 4287 Visualization
Major Hurricane Drought: Nine Years Without a Major Hurricane Making US Landfall
Read moreHurricane tracks from 1980 through 2014. Green tracks did not make landfall in US; yellow tracks made landfall but were not major hurricanes at the time; red tracks made landfall and were major hurricanes.This video is also available on our YouTube channel. || final_comp.2574_print.jpg (1024x576) [64.4 KB] || final_comp.2574_searchweb.png (320x180) [51.3 KB] || final_comp.webm (1920x1080) [6.2 MB] || final_comp.mp4 (1920x1080) [7.9 MB] || frames/1920x1080_16x9_30p/final_comp/ (1920x1080) [64.0 KB] || frames/1920x1080_16x9_30p/2015_final_comp/ (1920x1080) [64.0 KB] || final_comp.m4v (640x360) [4.2 MB] ||
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ID: 12251 Produced Video
Ten-Year Gap in Major Hurricanes Continues
Read moreCould the first tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season break the 10-year “hurricane drought” record?It has been a decade since the last major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, has made landfall in the United States. This is the longest period of time for the United States to avoid a major hurricane since reliable records began in 1850. According to a NASA study, a 10-year gap comes along only every 270 years. The National Hurricane Center calls any Category 3 or more intense hurricane a “major” storm. It should be noted that hurricanes making landfall as less than Category 3 can still cause extreme damage, with heavy rains and coastal storm surges. Such was the case with Hurricane Sandy in 2012.Timothy Hall, a research scientist who studies hurricanes at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York and colleague Kelly Hereid, who works for ACE Tempest Re, a reinsurance firm based in Connecticut, ran a statistical hurricane model based on a record of Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1950 to 2012 and sea surface temperature data. The researchers ran 1,000 computer simulations of the period from 1950-2012 – in effect simulating 63,000 separate Atlantic hurricane seasons. They also found that there is approximately a 40% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall in the United States every year. These visualizations show hurricane tracks from 1980 through 2015. Green tracks are storms that did not make landfall in the U.S.; yellow tracks are storms that made landfall but were not Category 3 or higher; and red tracks are Category 3 or higher hurricanes that did make landfall.Research: The frequency and duration of U.S. hurricane droughtsJournal: Geophysical Research Letters, May 5, 2015 ||
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