A World Without The Montreal Protocol
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- Written by:
- Alison Schuyler Ogden
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- Scientific consulting by:
- Paul Newman
- View full credits
A week ago marked the 24th anniversary of the signing of the Montreal Protocol, a landmark piece of legislation that began phasing out the production of ozone-depleting chemicals called chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). These chemicals, also known by the trade name Freon, were common refrigerants and widely used in aerosol spray cans prior to the Montreal Protocol. In recent years, scientists have been using cutting-edge computer models of the atmosphere to ask a fascinating question: What would have happened to the ozone layer if nations had done nothing to limit the release of CFCs? The impact of inaction, the modeling shows, would have been ominous: increased rates of cancer, cataracts, and immune deficiency diseases are just a few of the consequences. By 2065, global ozone levels would drop to less than 110 Dobson units—a measure of the amount of ozone between the surface and space. (A healthy Dobson unit reading over Antarctica is around 275.) "We wouldn't be able to go out much at all," says NASA scientist Paul Newman. In the visualization below, watch how ozone levels change in two simulated versions of the future: one where CFCs have been regulated, and one where they have not.
Credits
Please give credit for this item to:
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
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Animators
- Lori Perkins (NASA/GSFC)
- Ryan Zuber (UMBC)
- Trent L. Schindler (USRA)
- Walt Feimer (KBR Wyle Services, LLC)
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Writer
- Alison Schuyler Ogden (NASA/GSFC) [Lead]
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Scientist
- Paul Newman (NASA/GSFC) [Lead]
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Producers
- Jefferson Beck (KBR Wyle Services, LLC)
- Silvia Stoyanova (USRA)
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Videographer
- Rob Andreoli (Advocates in Manpower Management, Inc.)
Papers used in this visualization
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What Would have Happened to the Ozone Layer if Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been Regulated?
Read moreLed by NASA Goddard scientist Paul Newman, a team of atmospheric chemists simulated 'what might have been' if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and similar ozone-depleting chemicals were not banned through the Montreal Protocol. The comprehensive model — including atmospheric chemical effects, wind changes, and solar radiation changes — simulated what would happen to global concentrations of stratospheric ozone if CFCs were continually added to the atmosphere.The visualizations below present two cases, from several different viewing positions: the 'world avoided' case, where the rate of CFC emission into the atmosphere is assumed to be that of the period before regulation, and the 'projected' case, which assumes the current rate of emission, post-regulation. Both cases extrapolate to the year 2065. ||
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