1 00:00:01,060 --> 00:00:05,060 2 00:00:05,060 --> 00:00:09,060 From about 1993 to 2010, 3 00:00:09,060 --> 00:00:13,060 off the West Coast of the United States, we've seen about zero sea level rise or even negative sea level rise, 4 00:00:13,060 --> 00:00:17,060 so sea level was falling during that time period, 5 00:00:17,060 --> 00:00:21,060 but since about 2010, 2011, we've seen this really rapid increase 6 00:00:21,060 --> 00:00:25,060 in sea level off the U.S. West Coast. 7 00:00:25,060 --> 00:00:29,060 We’re seeing this recovery back towards the global mean, 8 00:00:29,060 --> 00:00:33,060 and if this continues to increase, then you would expect to start to see sea level impacts 9 00:00:33,060 --> 00:00:37,060 associated with this increase, increased coastal erosion, 10 00:00:37,060 --> 00:00:41,060 increased high-tide flooding, these kinds of things as sea level continues to increase. 11 00:00:41,060 --> 00:00:45,060 Sea level rise is caused by climate change. 12 00:00:45,060 --> 00:00:49,060 So there's a number of things happening. One is there's this background increase in sea level associated 13 00:00:49,060 --> 00:00:53,060 with global warming, so thermal expansion and the melting of ice, which is 14 00:00:53,060 --> 00:00:57,060 impacting sea level along the West Coast. That's causing this long-term increase. 15 00:00:57,060 --> 00:01:01,060 Natural Climate Cycles 16 00:01:01,060 --> 00:01:05,060 But on top of that increase, there’s this oscillation that occurs. Actually a number of oscillations. 17 00:01:05,060 --> 00:01:09,060 So the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is one of those. The El Nino-Southern 18 00:01:09,060 --> 00:01:13,060 Oscillation is another. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is 19 00:01:13,060 --> 00:01:17,060 a large-scale climate signal centered in the Pacific Ocean. Every 10 years, 20 00:01:17,060 --> 00:01:21,060 we see this shift in the sea level between what we see in the Western Pacific 21 00:01:21,060 --> 00:01:25,060 and what we see in the Eastern Pacific. And these oscillations suppress 22 00:01:25,060 --> 00:01:29,060 or elevate sea level over different time periods, and really either exacerbate 23 00:01:29,060 --> 00:01:33,060 or diminish the effects of that long-term sea level. 24 00:01:33,060 --> 00:01:37,060 Since about 2010, 2011, we’ve been seeing this 25 00:01:37,060 --> 00:01:41,060 shift in that decadal variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, 26 00:01:41,060 --> 00:01:45,060 and what that’s doing is casing sea level along the West Coast of the U.S. 27 00:01:45,060 --> 00:01:49,060 to go up. Since 2015, sea level has risen on the West Coast bu almost one centimeter per year 28 00:01:49,060 --> 00:01:53,060 29 00:01:53,060 --> 00:01:57,060 The global average is 3.3 millimeters. 30 00:01:57,060 --> 00:02:01,060 So really high rates of sea level, causing sea level to shift very dramatically, and this increase that we’ve been seeing 31 00:02:01,060 --> 00:02:05,060 in the satellite records, and also in some of the tide gauge records along the U.S. coast, 32 00:02:05,060 --> 00:02:09,060 as well. Why It Matters 33 00:02:09,060 --> 00:02:13,060 Trying to get a clear understanding of how sea level’s going to change and how it’s going to change, I think, 34 00:02:13,060 --> 00:02:17,060 is really important so we can inform people and they can make good decisions for their future 35 00:02:17,060 --> 00:02:21,060 and we can start to adapt and adjust our way of living 36 00:02:21,060 --> 00:02:27,714 in order to account for these effects that are going to occur in the future.