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We're of course celebrating tonight
Earth science in general

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which really exemplifies the idea
that everything at NASA leads, really,

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to the ultimate goal of protecting
and improving life on Earth.

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So I'm going to quickly talk about,
kind of, the view of Earth,

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and I'm going to talk about a kind of zoom in zoom out, right?

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Because for us to understand the Earth
we must see it in the broader context.

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And of course closest to the Earth
are terrestrial planets in our environment

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and each one of those planets tells a story.

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A story of how a planet can end up with a different destiny.

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When we study those planets,

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we learn about the processes that shaped the Earth,

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about our past, and about our future.

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Very similar to the Earth, for example, is Mars.

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That started together with the Earth but looks very, very different.

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We know now that Mars, of course, was very wet
and it lost a lot of the water, and we know now,

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from actually one of the Goddard-built spacecraft,

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that a lot of the reasons it lost that water is because of

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the scavenging from the solar wind,

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kind of ripping off, over millions of years,

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water out of the atmosphere.

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On the surface of Mars, of course we landed with,

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you know, Curiosity rover near Gale Crater

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and we really went into kind of a beach environment,

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with rivers and what used to be lake beds and so forth.

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We're learning about this and the amazing landscapes there,

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and really thinking about what could be in the future here,

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of an Earth where the the Sun gets hotter and hotter, for
example,

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as we go in kind of astronomical timescales going forward.

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When we look at the outside of the solar system,
and you already mentioned Cassini,

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we're looking at this amazing planet Saturn and its rings,
one of the most majestic planets,

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just absolutely amazing when you see him in a telescope.

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I remember as a kid looking at it, like there it is,
you know the rings – it's amazing.

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Well what's even more stunning is that there's moons out there, Titan and Enceladus,

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that we're now really thinking about in the context of the Earth,

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because of the fact that they have oceans

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and they spurt out organics, in the case of Enceladus.

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Something that gives us an entirely new
perspective as to where we should look for life

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and how in fact we should do that.

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You can zoom back even more and what you look at is a galaxy

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and you remember that in that galaxy are billions

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and hundreds of billions of stars.

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Well how many of them are like the Earth?

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I remember when I did my Ph.D. in '96,

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ah we thought well perhaps there's planets —

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you know '96 is one year after '95, for those of us geeks.

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Like you said, '95 is the time the first extrasolar planet was announced.

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So we thought, well perhaps 10% of these stars

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may or may not have planets,

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perhaps even less. Well... oh no.

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There's well, many, many more of those now.

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And this next thing is just one example that we actually discovered with Spitzer

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where we basically have a small star
with seven planets going around it.

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This is Spitzer following up on a ground-based observation.

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Three of those, we think, are in the habitable zone

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based on just a distance and temperature of the host star.

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We now know, based on Kepler and other observations, that

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it's very common to have planets.

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Every average star will have a planet.

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Many of them will have Earth-like planets.

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So it's an abundance of Earth-like planets,

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potential Earth-like planets here.

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But we have one home

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and that home was recently visited

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by a spacecraft also led out of Goddard, OSIRIS-Rex –

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it's actually on the way to a little body out there

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that it's gonna collect matter with,

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Bennu, and bringing it back.

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But when it flew by Earth it took this picture

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and it reminded us that, you know,

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coming from this deep space, coming to Earth,

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how beautiful our planet really is

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but also how fragile that planet is, as we're living on it.

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It reminds us all these stories,

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I think many of us were in Australia when they flew overhead

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some of us were in California,
there at the top of the picture,

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and that's really kind of zooming back in

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and you know the talks will be
zoomming into our beautiful planet

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that is such an important planet and subject

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very worthy of our study and full attention.

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So with that I want to introduce

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Marshall Shepherd, our next speaker.

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And of course Dr. Marshall Shepherd

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is a leading international expert in weather and climate

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[ audience chuckles ]

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and is the Georgia Athletic -- you like that picture, right? --

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[ audience chuckles ]

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the Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor.

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That means,

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in kind-of academic-speak

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the best of the best type of professor

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at the University of Georgia

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and you're also an Associate Department Head, of course.

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You were 2013 president of the American Meteorological Society,

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the nation's largest and oldest professional

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science society in atmospheric and related sciences,

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and prior to the University of Georgia,
Dr. Shephard spent 12 years as a

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researcher at NASA Goddard

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and was the deputy project scientist of GPM.

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It's actually that mission

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that helped make predictions for the very storms that

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were going over the house of my father-in-law,

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and you know for me this is really personal,

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when I look at these missions now,

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of course them being in our portfolio,

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but them affecting our lives in a direct fashion,

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he's safe, in part because of these predictions

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that came from that mission

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that you were directly working with, Marshall.

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I also want to say that of course

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Dr. Shepherd received his BS, MS, and PhD

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in meteorology at the Florida State
University and he was the first

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African-American to receive a PhD from

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Florida State University Department of Meteorology,

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one of the nation's oldest and most respected.

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I'm just excited to welcome you, Marshall.

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[ applause ]

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Thank you, and good evening.
Now go far enough into space

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and Earth looks like any other star or planet in our night sky.

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But of course we know it's not.

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Ccome closer and we see a planet bursting with color.

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It's bursting with life.

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It's covered by just the right amount of ocean,

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just the right amount of forested continents.

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It's protected by a dynamic yet thin atmosphere
that roils with weather and storms.

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Now we understand the cosmic odds that allow us
to carve out our lives here on Earth.

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Yet there is so much more to learn about our home planet.

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The world gets more populated more complicated every day.

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How are we going to improve life on Earth?

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How are we going to safeguard this planet?

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Who is going to lead the continuing discovery on Earth?

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As Thomas showed us, NASA's exploration of our
solar system and deep space is taking us

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closer than ever to planets than before.

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But that view from space is also vital

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to understanding the most complex planet we know.

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Earth.

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To take on Earth's challenges,
we need not only the vantage point of space,

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but we also need the technology, grit, and quest for discovery
that we use to explore the universe as only NASA can.

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Now it's important to note here that Earth Science
has been at the core of NASA's mission since the beginning.

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Let's take a look at the Space Act that created NASA.

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It talks about "for the benefit of all mankind."

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It talks about advanced knowledge of Earth's atmosphere,

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the preservation of the role of the United States as a leader.

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Now tonight I'm going to talk about things from a hurricane perspective.

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We want to share with you a few stories of how NASA is leading

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the planetary exploration of Earth

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and continuing to provide return on investment to every
US citizen.

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In particular we want to take a look inside the complex world of water.

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Sometimes there's too much, sometimes there's not enough.

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So let's pivot now to talk about the hurricane season of 2017.

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And by the way, as we speak there's a
hurricane possibly developing

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down in the Caribbean that will affect the
Gulf of Mexico and Gulf states later this weekend.

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Now 2017 has been an extraordinary season.

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Hurricane Harvey was the first major hurricane to make
landfall in the U.S. in over 12 years.

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The iPhone and Twitter weren't around then.

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It was also the most significant rainfall event in US history.

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Hurricane Irma remained a category 5 hurricane
longer than any storm on record in the Atlantic.

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And of course, Hurricane Maria:

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rapid intensification, power, humanitarian crisis.

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Now look, I'm a meteorologist

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and if you follow me on social media or read
some of the contributions I write for Forbes,

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many of us knew that these storms
were going to do what they did

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and that's really tough

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as someone that has knowledge
to see that happening.

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But there is, I guess, a bright side

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because we know that science has allowed us

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to advance knowledge,

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predict these storms, and possibly save lives.

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Now this hurricane season I want to highlight two stories.

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One, with each of the three major storms that I've talked about

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we can see, even in that glimmer of despair, a success story

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where the view from space has improved our ability
to forecast or respond to hurricanes.

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And the second storyline is that
we saw three major storms

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that highlighted absolutely fundamental questions

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that NASA is trying to answer
about hurricanes and how they work.

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And I'll get to those critical questions in a moment.

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But first let me acknowledge our partners.

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NASA is a research and development agency

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pushing the envelope on technology
and new knowledge generation.

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We work very closely with our partners at
NOAA, the USGS, other federal agencies,

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and in collaboration with many of our industry partners
that are here in the room tonight.

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That partnership and collaboration is
critical to everything that you're going to see tonight.

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And so we thank everyone that's represented here
from those various entities.

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GOES-16 will soon move to become GOES-East
in its operational orbit parking.

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GOES-S launches next spring

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and JPSS-1, our polar orbiting satellite system, launches next month.

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They're all a result of partnerships
between NASA, NOAA, and industry.

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Now let's talk about some of those success stories
that I mentioned earlier.

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Hurricane Harvey's rainfall:

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now, as a meteorologist when I was looking
at the forecast models

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and I saw them saying three to five feet of rain,

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I couldn't believe it.

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I literally couldn't believe it. But they were right.

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Days out, they were right.

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This is a testament to decades of advancement.

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This information from these satellites and
from advanced models are saving lives.

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Let's take a look at Hurricane Irma's track forecast.

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This is five days before Hurricane Irma made landfall.

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Watch the lines:

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the forecasts were spot-on five days out.

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Now yes there was a little wiggling
back and forth as it neared Florida, but

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where we are in meteorology, this was an amazing forecast.

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And science got us there.

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Now some ways that you might not think of,

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and you heard Chris mention this earlier,

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Puerto Rico: Maria knocked out power all across that island.

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What you're looking at here is a brand-new NASA capability

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that gave first responders block-by-block detail

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of where power went out.

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It is produced by scientists at
NASA Goddard and NASA Marshall.

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It combines nighttime data from the Suomi NPP satellite

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with four other types of satellite data

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and the result is a high-definition view of night lights

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before and after Maria.

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Look at the streets and city blocks that you can see.

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But here's what's more important to citizens

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particularly our citizens in Puerto Rico.

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This map you're looking at
was put directly in the hands of FEMA

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and the National Guard last week

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directly in their hands

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so that they can map out a response strategy.

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The first time this satellite data product
has been provided to first responders.

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Now let me pivot back to those research questions.

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The science is helping us understand them,
and there's still many challenges ahead,

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but NASA is there, and our partners are there.

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Let's go back to Harvey's rainfall.
The volume of rain raises questions.

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Are severe storms more likely
to produce more rainfall in the future?

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NASA is in a better position to help figure that question out.

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In 2014, NASA, in partnership with
the Japanese space agency, JAXA,

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launched the Global Precipitation Measurement
Core Observatory, GPM.

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Now this is the most advanced orbiting
rainfall measurement system ever conceived.

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NASA is coordinating and fine-tuning
rainfall measurements like never before.

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The core satellite has a radar and
passive microwave imager

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that helps calibrate a constellation
of satellites, ten of them,

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to produce unprecedented global rainfall maps, around the world.

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That's weather, folks, that you're seeing,
manifested in rainfall.

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And at that scale that GPM can provide,
not only does it provide science,

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we can help with landslides, flooding,
and other things that affect society.

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That's US leadership.

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00:15:09.625 --> 00:15:13.876
Now we've heard questions about whether
extreme rainfall events are going to increase,

241
00:15:13.896 --> 00:15:15.261
the physics of a warmer atmosphere

242
00:15:15.281 --> 00:15:17.479
leading to more moisture in the atmosphere,

243
00:15:17.499 --> 00:15:19.081
more big rain events.

244
00:15:19.101 --> 00:15:21.166
In other words, what's the weather going to be like

245
00:15:21.186 --> 00:15:23.619
in the 21st century going forward?

246
00:15:23.639 --> 00:15:26.305
These are questions of the day that scientists will address

247
00:15:26.325 --> 00:15:28.207
and GPM will be there to help.

248
00:15:28.227 --> 00:15:31.860
But rainfall from Harvey was not the
only hallmark of this season.

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00:15:31.880 --> 00:15:35.898
Let's go back and take another look at that Irma track

250
00:15:35.918 --> 00:15:37.066
and what you'll see -

251
00:15:37.086 --> 00:15:40.586
look at those warm ocean waters that Irma had to tap into,

252
00:15:40.606 --> 00:15:44.373
but look inside the little hurricane symbol you'll see a number.

253
00:15:44.393 --> 00:15:49.511
And what I want to show here is that
Hurricane Irma was a category 5 storm

254
00:15:49.531 --> 00:15:54.967
longer than any storm that we've seen on record in the Atlantic.

255
00:15:54.987 --> 00:15:57.386
Category 5 storm.

256
00:15:57.406 --> 00:16:00.723
What made the storm so strong and for so long?

257
00:16:00.743 --> 00:16:03.575
Well as you saw, lots of ocean heat content

258
00:16:03.595 --> 00:16:06.228
that NASA satellites can provide information for,

259
00:16:06.248 --> 00:16:09.081
and some NOAA satellites as well.

260
00:16:09.101 --> 00:16:11.667
This takes us to our second fundamental question:

261
00:16:11.687 --> 00:16:15.304
how will warm ocean waters affect hurricane intensity?

262
00:16:15.324 --> 00:16:20.059
And here I need to focus on Hurricane Maria.

263
00:16:20.079 --> 00:16:25.497
Maria was a storm that went from a
category 1 to a category 5 storm

264
00:16:25.517 --> 00:16:28.133
in less than 24 hours in September.

265
00:16:28.153 --> 00:16:30.736
Less than 24 hours.

266
00:16:30.756 --> 00:16:33.205
That's rapid intensification

267
00:16:33.225 --> 00:16:35.808
and those of us in my field know that that remains

268
00:16:35.828 --> 00:16:37.926
one of the grand challenges of meteorology

269
00:16:37.946 --> 00:16:39.795
because we've gotten track forecasts

270
00:16:39.815 --> 00:16:41.814
to be pretty good over the last several decades,

271
00:16:41.834 --> 00:16:43.298
but intensity is a challenge.

272
00:16:43.318 --> 00:16:45.534
Why do we get this rapid intensification?

273
00:16:45.554 --> 00:16:49.438
And that's been a theme of the hurricane season this year, by the way.

274
00:16:49.458 --> 00:16:53.942
GPM again can help.

275
00:16:53.962 --> 00:16:57.212
We can pop the hood on these storms.

276
00:16:57.232 --> 00:17:01.100
What do I mean by that?
I like to think of hurricanes as like large heat engines.

277
00:17:01.120 --> 00:17:03.352
And when you see hurricanes with traditional satellites,

278
00:17:03.372 --> 00:17:05.587
you're often looking at the clouds.

279
00:17:05.607 --> 00:17:08.157
But as you're going to see in a moment with Maria,

280
00:17:08.177 --> 00:17:10.359
we can now take this satellite data

281
00:17:10.379 --> 00:17:13.062
and we can peer inside the hurricane

282
00:17:13.082 --> 00:17:16.048
and look at the thunderstorms in the eye wall and rain band.

283
00:17:16.068 --> 00:17:20.219
Well if my wife were sitting here right now
she'd say, "so what."

284
00:17:20.239 --> 00:17:22.071
She's just - that's the way she is –

285
00:17:22.091 --> 00:17:23.188
[ laughter ]

286
00:17:23.208 --> 00:17:26.475
but the reality is there is a huge "so what,"

287
00:17:26.495 --> 00:17:28.627
because when we can see these thunderstorms

288
00:17:28.647 --> 00:17:31.380
developing and growing in the eyewall and rain band

289
00:17:31.400 --> 00:17:34.450
they're showing the heat release that powers this engine

290
00:17:34.470 --> 00:17:37.453
and that may very well be a clue

291
00:17:37.473 --> 00:17:41.173
that will help us with intensity forecasts.

292
00:17:41.193 --> 00:17:42.725
But it's not just satellite data.

293
00:17:42.745 --> 00:17:44.710
The Global Hawk,

294
00:17:44.730 --> 00:17:47.046
suborbital platforms, aircraft

295
00:17:47.066 --> 00:17:48.814
are also providing unique views

296
00:17:48.834 --> 00:17:51.100
and many of these capabilities provided by NASA

297
00:17:51.120 --> 00:17:54.236
and our other partners in the industry.

298
00:17:54.256 --> 00:17:59.341
And I can't not talk about the performance of our forecast models.

299
00:17:59.361 --> 00:18:05.464
Take a look at this model that shows the track of Hurricane Sandy.

300
00:18:05.484 --> 00:18:08.517
Studies have shown that if satellite data

301
00:18:08.537 --> 00:18:11.520
were removed from the models,

302
00:18:11.540 --> 00:18:15.157
we would not have seen that Hurricane Sandy
was going to make a left turn

303
00:18:15.177 --> 00:18:18.343
into New Jersey and New York nine days ahead of time.

304
00:18:18.363 --> 00:18:22.030
The satellite data is being ingested into the models.

305
00:18:22.050 --> 00:18:24.249
Now, this last science question is dear to my heart

306
00:18:24.269 --> 00:18:27.269
because it's some of my own
research that's sponsored by NASA.

307
00:18:27.289 --> 00:18:31.507
There is something called the "brown ocean."

308
00:18:31.527 --> 00:18:34.676
You might think that storms weaken when they move over land,

309
00:18:34.696 --> 00:18:36.645
but we found something different.

310
00:18:36.665 --> 00:18:37.546
Take a look at this image.

311
00:18:37.566 --> 00:18:40.499
You're seeing soil moisture from SMAP and other things.

312
00:18:40.519 --> 00:18:44.086
The red represents dry soil over Texas and Oklahoma

313
00:18:44.106 --> 00:18:47.840
and look what you see, rainfall over several weeks to months.

314
00:18:47.860 --> 00:18:50.325
Now watch that change over to blue in Texas

315
00:18:50.345 --> 00:18:53.095
that means the soil is getting wetter, it's moistening up.

316
00:18:53.115 --> 00:18:55.047
Here comes Tropical Storm Bill,

317
00:18:55.067 --> 00:18:57.282
moves over that wet soil,

318
00:18:57.302 --> 00:19:00.786
and maintains its strength.
It actually even intensified.

319
00:19:00.806 --> 00:19:03.438
The "brown ocean" was feeding the storm

320
00:19:03.458 --> 00:19:05.791
just like the ocean would. That wet soil,

321
00:19:05.811 --> 00:19:08.844
that's the "brown ocean."

322
00:19:08.864 --> 00:19:12.131
Now I'd like to introduce Dr. Christa Peters-Lidard.

323
00:19:12.151 --> 00:19:15.984
She's a hydrologist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center.

324
00:19:16.004 --> 00:19:19.238
Christa has developed hydrological models of the water cycle

325
00:19:19.258 --> 00:19:22.658
that have been widely adopted by the US Air Force weather agency,

326
00:19:22.678 --> 00:19:23.442
NOAA,

327
00:19:23.462 --> 00:19:26.128
and the US Agency for International Development

328
00:19:26.148 --> 00:19:29.715
as critical components for their forecasting systems.

329
00:19:29.735 --> 00:19:34.336
Christa currently serves as a Deputy Director of
NASA Goddard's Earth Science Division

330
00:19:34.356 --> 00:19:39.758
where she oversees five of the thirteen
Goddard Earth science laboratories.

331
00:19:39.778 --> 00:19:42.878
She is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society

332
00:19:42.898 --> 00:19:45.764
and has been awarded the Arthur S. Fleming medal

333
00:19:45.784 --> 00:19:48.784
given to outstanding federal employees.

334
00:19:48.804 --> 00:19:51.837
She's also a friend and a colleague.

335
00:19:51.857 --> 00:19:59.211
[ applause ]

336
00:19:59.231 --> 00:20:02.781
Since NASA was created nearly six decades ago,

337
00:20:02.801 --> 00:20:06.084
this agency and the larger science community

338
00:20:06.104 --> 00:20:09.755
has essentially discovered how the Earth works

339
00:20:09.775 --> 00:20:12.007
as an interconnected system,

340
00:20:12.027 --> 00:20:13.725
as a planet,

341
00:20:13.745 --> 00:20:16.879
and we are still discovering.

342
00:20:16.899 --> 00:20:21.133
NASA is converting the space-based view of Earth

343
00:20:21.153 --> 00:20:25.437
into a pixel-level planetary intelligence system

344
00:20:25.457 --> 00:20:29.558
for navigating the challenges of the 21st century.

345
00:20:29.578 --> 00:20:34.880
One of those challenges is coping with drought.

346
00:20:34.900 --> 00:20:38.100
California, 2015.

347
00:20:38.120 --> 00:20:43.438
One of the most productive agricultural
markets in the world was wracked

348
00:20:43.458 --> 00:20:47.376
by a fourth year of drought.

349
00:20:47.396 --> 00:20:50.312
Wildfires burned,

350
00:20:50.332 --> 00:20:53.081
crops wilted,

351
00:20:53.101 --> 00:20:58.904
reservoirs plummeted to half of historical averages.

352
00:20:58.924 --> 00:21:03.609
But how did this drought spread? How pervasive was it?

353
00:21:03.629 --> 00:21:07.279
From space we track water in the ground,

354
00:21:07.299 --> 00:21:09.965
whether it's a centimeter, a meter,

355
00:21:09.985 --> 00:21:13.619
or a kilometer below the surface.

356
00:21:13.639 --> 00:21:17.406
Let's start with the big picture.

357
00:21:17.426 --> 00:21:19.641
Around the world the GRACE satellites,

358
00:21:19.661 --> 00:21:23.662
which is a partnership between NASA
and the German Space Agency,

359
00:21:23.682 --> 00:21:25.914
have provided unprecedented views

360
00:21:25.934 --> 00:21:29.334
of water storage and natural aquifers.

361
00:21:29.354 --> 00:21:33.155
These underground reserves are so massive

362
00:21:33.175 --> 00:21:36.675
that they affect the Earth's gravity field.

363
00:21:36.695 --> 00:21:38.560
And when their mass changes,

364
00:21:38.580 --> 00:21:43.298
the satellites detect the change in gravity.

365
00:21:43.318 --> 00:21:46.234
Droughts affect deep groundwater stores.

366
00:21:46.254 --> 00:21:48.737
In fact, water users can pump

367
00:21:48.757 --> 00:21:52.808
hundreds of billions of gallons out of their aquifers

368
00:21:52.828 --> 00:21:55.911
to compensate for the lack of rainfall.

369
00:21:55.931 --> 00:22:00.182
And GRACE detects this change.

370
00:22:00.202 --> 00:22:03.785
This view from space has revolutionized our understanding

371
00:22:03.805 --> 00:22:07.539
of water stored beneath the Earth's surface.

372
00:22:07.559 --> 00:22:11.076
But scientists at NASA Goddard can
provide a more detailed view

373
00:22:11.096 --> 00:22:13.045
of conditions in the continental US by

374
00:22:13.065 --> 00:22:17.582
combining GRACE data with sophisticated computer models.

375
00:22:17.602 --> 00:22:20.485
These computer models help us decompose the GRACE signal

376
00:22:20.505 --> 00:22:25.023
into the surface, root zone, and shallow groundwater.

377
00:22:25.043 --> 00:22:29.428
And this view can help trigger critical water conservation measures.

378
00:22:29.448 --> 00:22:33.165
Stations on the ground provide a connect-the-dots picture

379
00:22:33.185 --> 00:22:36.968
but the vantage point from space, combined with modeling,

380
00:22:36.988 --> 00:22:41.006
provides a comprehensive view
of the California drought:

381
00:22:41.026 --> 00:22:45.427
how it evolved over time, and ultimately ended.

382
00:22:45.447 --> 00:22:49.681
This constantly changing snapshot of shallow groundwater conditions

383
00:22:49.701 --> 00:22:55.287
is now used every week in the US Drought Monitor.

384
00:22:55.307 --> 00:22:58.323
This is the benchmark relied upon by decision-makers

385
00:22:58.343 --> 00:23:03.078
at the local, state, and federal levels.

386
00:23:03.098 --> 00:23:06.214
So GRACE gives us a global view,

387
00:23:06.234 --> 00:23:10.786
and the combination of satellites and
modeling gives us a regional view,

388
00:23:10.806 --> 00:23:15.857
but what if I want to know what's happening
in a 30 by 30-meter plot of land,

389
00:23:15.877 --> 00:23:19.728
the size of a Landsat pixel?

390
00:23:19.748 --> 00:23:22.230
California's wine industry

391
00:23:22.250 --> 00:23:24.716
provides tens of thousands of jobs,

392
00:23:24.736 --> 00:23:29.171
pays seventeen billion dollars in wages every year,

393
00:23:29.191 --> 00:23:33.475
and is built on intensive agricultural practices.

394
00:23:33.495 --> 00:23:36.828
It is also at the forefront of using the view from space

395
00:23:36.848 --> 00:23:41.400
to save water and be more efficient.

396
00:23:41.420 --> 00:23:44.069
The E&J Gallo company grows grapes

397
00:23:44.089 --> 00:23:49.024
on a hundred thousand acres across California.

398
00:23:49.044 --> 00:23:52.310
Nick Dokoozlian, the company's head of viticulture, said

399
00:23:52.330 --> 00:23:56.114
that during the drought
"we were farming on a fine line.

400
00:23:56.134 --> 00:24:01.453
The model went from commercialization to survival."

401
00:24:01.473 --> 00:24:06.224
They use Landsat which is a joint program of NASA and USGS

402
00:24:06.244 --> 00:24:09.978
to monitor water use and the health of their vines.

403
00:24:09.998 --> 00:24:14.483
With constant care, and a decade's long record of data,

404
00:24:14.503 --> 00:24:17.185
their irrigation strategy was modified,

405
00:24:17.205 --> 00:24:20.071
and the vines made it through.

406
00:24:20.091 --> 00:24:25.377
Not only that, but water usage was cut in half on some acres.

407
00:24:25.397 --> 00:24:28.597
The company uses commercial satellite data, too,

408
00:24:28.617 --> 00:24:30.215
but as Dokoozlian said,

409
00:24:30.235 --> 00:24:40.425
"Landsat is the most robust form of imagery
across the state. We trust it more."

410
00:24:40.445 --> 00:24:44.279
In fact the company is moving to a system of irrigation

411
00:24:44.299 --> 00:24:50.385
that is mapped according to
30 by 30-meter Landsat pixels.

412
00:24:50.405 --> 00:24:54.773
Working with IBM and an
irrigation company called Netafim,

413
00:24:54.793 --> 00:25:00.245
Gallo is developing what they call "farming by pixel."

414
00:25:00.265 --> 00:25:03.348
Taking the foundational data from Landsat

415
00:25:03.368 --> 00:25:09.488
and converting it into drip by drip irrigation decisions.

416
00:25:09.508 --> 00:25:12.707
The company is also talking with its neighbors,

417
00:25:12.727 --> 00:25:15.336
the water intensive almond growers,

418
00:25:15.356 --> 00:25:18.830
about the possibilities for their industry.

419
00:25:18.850 --> 00:25:22.934
This kind of approach would revolutionize the way people irrigate

420
00:25:22.954 --> 00:25:25.086
across the state of California,

421
00:25:25.106 --> 00:25:26.238
where, by the way,

422
00:25:26.258 --> 00:25:33.245
agriculture brings in receipts of 50 billion dollars per year.

423
00:25:33.265 --> 00:25:38.116
So the next time you enjoy a glass of wine, or some almonds,

424
00:25:38.136 --> 00:25:43.171
you might want to offer a toast to Landsat and to GRACE.

425
00:25:43.191 --> 00:25:49.261
[ clapping ]

426
00:25:49.281 --> 00:25:51.930
So California survived its historic drought,

427
00:25:51.950 --> 00:25:55.317
and the public and the private  sectors are now retooling

428
00:25:55.337 --> 00:25:57.869
their long-term plans for managing water.

429
00:25:57.889 --> 00:26:00.956
And the view from space will help lead the way.

430
00:26:00.976 --> 00:26:03.158
The drought recovery took years

431
00:26:03.178 --> 00:26:07.913
helped in part by massive storms that
stretched across the Pacific this winter and spring

432
00:26:07.933 --> 00:26:12.050
and El Niño driven rain and
snow in the years before that.

433
00:26:12.070 --> 00:26:16.271
But while the local El Niño impact was beneficial

434
00:26:16.291 --> 00:26:21.893
it also reminded us of why we study the
Earth as an interconnected system.

435
00:26:21.913 --> 00:26:28.183
When a giant swell of warm water emerged
in the Pacific Ocean in 2015,

436
00:26:28.203 --> 00:26:31.469
scientists knew to look for impacts.

437
00:26:31.489 --> 00:26:35.106
As El Niño changed the global weather patterns,

438
00:26:35.126 --> 00:26:40.278
Southern Africa went into a severe drought.

439
00:26:40.298 --> 00:26:44.716
On top of already dry conditions,
the region experienced its

440
00:26:44.736 --> 00:26:49.804
lowest rainfall in 35 years.

441
00:26:49.824 --> 00:26:53.074
With the SMAP mission, launched in 2015,

442
00:26:53.094 --> 00:26:58.029
NASA has dedicated soil moisture
measurements for the first time,

443
00:26:58.049 --> 00:27:02.067
and SMAP could see the severe drought emerging.

444
00:27:02.087 --> 00:27:06.204
SMAP's highly sensitive microwave
radiometer detects the energy

445
00:27:06.224 --> 00:27:10.525
emitted by the soil, depending
on how wet or how dry it is.

446
00:27:10.545 --> 00:27:11.793
It's like the old gardener's trick;

447
00:27:11.813 --> 00:27:18.083
you squeeze a handful of dirt and
you see if it clumps up or if it falls apart.

448
00:27:18.103 --> 00:27:20.368
Think of SMAP as doing the same thing

449
00:27:20.388 --> 00:27:27.692
with a lot more precision, all around
the world, every three days.

450
00:27:27.712 --> 00:27:32.330
SMAP allowed us to see the connection between
the Pacific Ocean water temperatures

451
00:27:32.350 --> 00:27:36.051
and the  moisture in the soil in southern Africa.

452
00:27:36.071 --> 00:27:37.669
But like with the data in California,

453
00:27:37.689 --> 00:27:43.291
these measurements are now being put to
operational use more than ever.

454
00:27:43.311 --> 00:27:48.279
SMAP's data was fed into the USDA's
global crop yield forecasts,

455
00:27:48.299 --> 00:27:51.599
the Foreign Agriculture Service reports that help drive

456
00:27:51.619 --> 00:27:56.021
multibillion-dollar commodity markets around the world.

457
00:27:56.041 --> 00:27:59.708
In fact, the scientists for this region said that
with SMAP,

458
00:27:59.728 --> 00:28:06.581
they now have the first reliable
soil moisture data in 30 years.

459
00:28:06.601 --> 00:28:08.817
As the soils dried out

460
00:28:08.837 --> 00:28:12.220
we also used the Terra and the Aqua satellites

461
00:28:12.240 --> 00:28:17.225
to assess the impact on vegetation
across the countries of southern Africa.

462
00:28:17.245 --> 00:28:20.261
These NASA soil moisture and vegetation analyses

463
00:28:20.281 --> 00:28:23.648
were also fed into a USAID program

464
00:28:23.668 --> 00:28:27.652
called the Famine Early Warning Systems Network.

465
00:28:27.672 --> 00:28:29.654
As this drought spread,

466
00:28:29.674 --> 00:28:37.629
nearly 30 million people were
at risk of drastic food shortages.

467
00:28:37.649 --> 00:28:44.853
Four out of ten people did not have access to clean drinking water

468
00:28:44.873 --> 00:28:50.492
The global view provided by NASA
scientists helped inform USAID decisions

469
00:28:50.512 --> 00:28:54.796
about where the agency should send help.

470
00:28:54.816 --> 00:28:58.666
In southern Africa, in 2015 and 2016,

471
00:28:58.686 --> 00:29:05.390
USAID delivered nearly 350 million
dollars of emergency water and food aid

472
00:29:05.410 --> 00:29:09.110
to millions of people.

473
00:29:09.130 --> 00:29:12.664
Our planet's population hit seven billion people in

474
00:29:12.684 --> 00:29:17.719
2011 and we will likely hit 8 billion
in the next decade.

475
00:29:17.739 --> 00:29:21.790
We are more dependent than ever
on our global food system

476
00:29:21.810 --> 00:29:26.111
at a time when we expect droughts
like the ones you've seen tonight,

477
00:29:26.131 --> 00:29:29.814
to happen more frequently,
with more severity,

478
00:29:29.834 --> 00:29:32.734
for longer periods of time.

479
00:29:32.754 --> 00:29:36.938
The challenge is not only feeding a billion people

480
00:29:36.958 --> 00:29:40.708
but minimizing conflict.

481
00:29:40.728 --> 00:29:43.578
The defense and intelligence communities have named the

482
00:29:43.598 --> 00:29:48.933
increased likelihood of conflict due to
food and water shortages

483
00:29:48.953 --> 00:29:56.808
as one of the key threat multipliers
they are watching in the 21st century.

484
00:29:56.828 --> 00:29:59.761
Water drives life,

485
00:29:59.781 --> 00:30:03.214
and the global agriculture
system that depends on it.

486
00:30:03.234 --> 00:30:07.769
If we want to know and predict
what's happening with agriculture locally,

487
00:30:07.789 --> 00:30:11.790
we have to understand this system globally.

488
00:30:11.810 --> 00:30:16.494
And now, to bring us home, here's Marshall.

489
00:30:16.514 --> 00:30:25.537
[ clapping ]

490
00:30:25.557 --> 00:30:26.905
Well, there they are.

491
00:30:26.925 --> 00:30:29.040
They can't ever say they haven't been on a big screen.

492
00:30:29.060 --> 00:30:30.191
[ laughter ]

493
00:30:30.211 --> 00:30:32.393
Those are my kids,

494
00:30:32.413 --> 00:30:34.362
and hopefully tonight you see that

495
00:30:34.382 --> 00:30:36.664
this is not about pretty pictures from satellites.

496
00:30:36.684 --> 00:30:39.634
These are about
narratives of society.

497
00:30:39.654 --> 00:30:45.073
It's about their generation
and future generations to come.

498
00:30:45.093 --> 00:30:47.342
The bottom line is this for me:

499
00:30:47.362 --> 00:30:52.730
there is no plan B planet, for them or us.

500
00:30:52.750 --> 00:30:56.043
Now Christa and I have shown you several
in depth stories about water,

501
00:30:56.063 --> 00:30:59.397
and really only a fraction of the water cycle.

502
00:30:59.417 --> 00:31:01.773
Now keep in mind that NASA is applying the

503
00:31:01.793 --> 00:31:04.584
same intensity of monitoring and research

504
00:31:04.604 --> 00:31:09.309
to answer key questions about
other facets of the Earth's system.

505
00:31:09.329 --> 00:31:13.500
For example, what are the trends with
the world's ice sheets and glaciers,

506
00:31:13.520 --> 00:31:17.246
and what does that mean for our coastlines in the future?

507
00:31:17.266 --> 00:31:23.305
What do the ongoing changes to the
Arctic sea ice mean for the region?

508
00:31:23.325 --> 00:31:27.603
Next year NASA launches the
GRACE Follow-On and ICESat-2,

509
00:31:27.623 --> 00:31:31.936
representing major refreshes of our
ice and water monitoring capabilities.

510
00:31:31.956 --> 00:31:34.837
And this is important because in order to detect change

511
00:31:34.857 --> 00:31:39.054
we need to see trends, long-term trends.

512
00:31:39.074 --> 00:31:43.263
How is life on land and in the ocean
changing around the globe?

513
00:31:43.283 --> 00:31:46.217
How is carbon moving through the air and ocean and land?

514
00:31:46.237 --> 00:31:48.949
And then what does this mean for our future climate?

515
00:31:48.969 --> 00:31:52.523
The coming launches of
Landsat 9 and the GEDI lidar

516
00:31:52.543 --> 00:31:58.950
to the International Space Station will
advance these investigations.

517
00:31:58.970 --> 00:32:04.778
How will clouds and aerosols respond to,
and affect changes, in the Earth's system?

518
00:32:04.798 --> 00:32:09.191
This remains one of the biggest question
marks about our climate system.

519
00:32:09.211 --> 00:32:15.077
And there are questions.
That's why we as scientists do what we do.

520
00:32:15.097 --> 00:32:17.293
These questions aren't just scientific mysteries.

521
00:32:17.313 --> 00:32:22.498
Together they add up to a larger question
of habitability on the planet.

522
00:32:22.518 --> 00:32:25.247
But there is good news.

523
00:32:25.267 --> 00:32:29.625
The good news is that science has tackled
these types of challenges before.

524
00:32:29.645 --> 00:32:35.409
Just last month marked the 30th anniversary
of the Montreal Protocol,

525
00:32:35.429 --> 00:32:40.054
an international agreement struck within
years of science identifying a crisis:

526
00:32:40.074 --> 00:32:42.295
the ozone hole, which you see here.

527
00:32:42.315 --> 00:32:45.632
Now, note that the blue represents depleted ozone.

528
00:32:45.652 --> 00:32:50.517
That's the ozone hole over the Antarctic region.

529
00:32:50.537 --> 00:32:54.797
It would have never been possible without
NASA's confirmation from space

530
00:32:54.817 --> 00:33:01.007
of the size and persistence of that hole.

531
00:33:01.027 --> 00:33:04.946
Now let's walk through a world-avoided simulation,

532
00:33:04.966 --> 00:33:08.321
just to kind of bring home the value of understanding that

533
00:33:08.341 --> 00:33:09.861
that ozone hole was there

534
00:33:09.881 --> 00:33:12.370
and doing something about it.

535
00:33:12.390 --> 00:33:17.415
On the left is the world with the Montreal Protocol.

536
00:33:17.435 --> 00:33:20.511
On the right is what the world's ozone layer would look like

537
00:33:20.531 --> 00:33:22.380
in the northern hemisphere

538
00:33:22.400 --> 00:33:25.811
if we didn't pass the Montreal Protocol.

539
00:33:25.831 --> 00:33:31.242
And keep in mind that blue represents depleted ozone.

540
00:33:31.262 --> 00:33:34.748
Watch what happens as we approach the year 2017,

541
00:33:34.768 --> 00:33:37.231
the year that we're in.

542
00:33:37.251 --> 00:33:39.286
Here at the latitude that we are,

543
00:33:39.306 --> 00:33:42.115
if we didn't pass the Montreal Protocol

544
00:33:42.135 --> 00:33:47.881
we would have about 10% more ozone depletion

545
00:33:47.901 --> 00:33:51.369
or 10% more increases, if you will,

546
00:33:51.389 --> 00:33:53.771
in the damaging UV radiation.

547
00:33:53.791 --> 00:33:58.631
Now UV radiation damages our skin,
first of all it's a health issue,

548
00:33:58.651 --> 00:34:04.297
and crops that we depend on for food.

549
00:34:04.317 --> 00:34:06.904
So science has risen to the challenge before,

550
00:34:06.924 --> 00:34:11.320
and as challenges mount, will need to again.

551
00:34:11.340 --> 00:34:15.937
But choosing to cast our lot with science is
really choosing to put our faith in people.

552
00:34:15.957 --> 00:34:19.521
Yes, we face enormous challenges in the years and decades ahead,

553
00:34:19.541 --> 00:34:23.614
as we push science and society to understand

554
00:34:23.634 --> 00:34:27.546
and manage the resources of our home planet.

555
00:34:27.566 --> 00:34:31.681
There is no better partnership than the one that we see between NASA,

556
00:34:31.701 --> 00:34:32.989
NOAA,

557
00:34:33.009 --> 00:34:34.591
USGS,

558
00:34:34.611 --> 00:34:36.409
other federal agencies

559
00:34:36.429 --> 00:34:39.574
and the vital collaborations with industry partners,

560
00:34:39.594 --> 00:34:43.159
many of which are represented in this room tonight.

561
00:34:43.179 --> 00:34:45.784
This partnership will lead the way

562
00:34:45.804 --> 00:34:47.813
into the 21st century

563
00:34:47.833 --> 00:34:52.298
with optimism that we can solve these challenges together.

564
00:34:52.318 --> 00:34:54.647
Our work has just begun.

565
00:34:54.667 --> 00:34:55.536
Thank you.

566
00:34:55.556 --> 00:35:03.553
[ applause ]-

567
00:35:03.573 --> 00:35:09.591
[ beeping ]