WEBVTT FILE 1 00:00:00.010 --> 00:00:04.220 Huffman: Late in the summer, moisture starts coming up 2 00:00:04.240 --> 00:00:08.390 the west coast of Mexico and entering the southwestern U.S. And you transition 3 00:00:08.410 --> 00:00:12.460 from a relatively dry early season to something that's more prone to 4 00:00:12.480 --> 00:00:16.640 thunderstorms and the attendant flash floods. Relatively small amounts 5 00:00:16.660 --> 00:00:20.830 of rain in a desert condition can lead to a flash flood, even 6 00:00:20.850 --> 00:00:25.020 if it's a long way away. The ground is not very good at absorbing water and so 7 00:00:25.040 --> 00:00:29.220 instead it very quickly runs off and can run down channels for miles, perhaps catching 8 00:00:29.240 --> 00:00:33.420 people unaware. 9 00:00:33.440 --> 00:00:37.460 10 00:00:37.480 --> 00:00:41.630 11 00:00:41.650 --> 00:00:45.810 Huffman: In a general sort of way, 12 00:00:45.830 --> 00:00:49.900 we know that it rains in the summer and doesn't rain the rest of the year. But, the 13 00:00:49.920 --> 00:00:54.080 question is: Is it strong or is it weak? These kinds of long-range forecasts 14 00:00:54.100 --> 00:00:58.280 are still quite challenging. Even at the shorter scale, the monsoon 15 00:00:58.300 --> 00:01:02.480 consists of what are called breaks and then surges. And being able to forecast 16 00:01:02.500 --> 00:01:06.670 those breaks and surges a few days or weeks in advance would be a really 17 00:01:06.690 --> 00:01:10.840 great thing. There's a certain capability to do that now, but if we 18 00:01:10.860 --> 00:01:15.030 understand the precipitation processes better that will give us a better handle on 19 00:01:15.050 --> 00:01:19.220 how the heat is released in the dynamical systems that are 20 00:01:19.240 --> 00:01:23.260 contributing to the breaks and surges. 21 00:01:23.280 --> 00:01:26.333