WEBVTT FILE

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These lines represent hurricane tracks over the Atlantic Ocean.

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Green lines are hurricanes that didn’t make landfall.

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Yellow lines are hurricanes that did but where less than Category 3

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and it shows that 10 years have passed

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since the U.S. has had the landfall of a Category 3 or higher hurricane.

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Hurricanes are labeled as ‘major’ storms when they reach Category 3 or higher,

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which means they have winds greater than 111mph.

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Of course hurricanes less than Category 3

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can still cause extreme damage with heavy rains and coastal storm surges.

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So what are the chances of a major hurricane making landfall in 2016?

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This shows the record of hurricane tracks for the last few decades.

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Red lines are the major Category 3 or higher hurricanes that did make landfall.

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You can see that major hurricanes don’t make landfall every year

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but some years several major hurricanes do make landfall.

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2005 was the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record.

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It’s then followed by a 10-year gap,

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which is the longest period for the U.S. to avoid a Category 3 or higher hurricane

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since reliable records began in 1850.

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Based off the hurricane record,

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a NASA study used a model to gauge hurricane activity.

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They found that a 10-year gap only comes along every 270 years.

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But this doesn’t mean that the U.S. is more likely to get a storm this year.

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The study also found that the chance of one or more Category 3 storms hitting our coasts

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is roughly 40% every year including 2016.

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Scientists don’t know what’s caused this 10-year gap

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but we can be sure that major hurricanes have been out there,

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they just haven’t made landfall.

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