WEBVTT FILE

1
00:00:00.090 --> 00:00:04.170
An El Nino is one of the most extreme short-term climate

2
00:00:04.190 --> 00:00:08.210
change events on the planet. It can influence weather patterns,

3
00:00:08.230 --> 00:00:12.390
alter the path of storms, cause severe floods, and even disrupt

4
00:00:12.410 --> 00:00:16.430
marine ecosystems. But by feeding satellite and other types

5
00:00:16.450 --> 00:00:20.520
of data into computer models, we can predict when an El Nino is coming

6
00:00:20.540 --> 00:00:24.640
and even see the evolution of its unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific.

7
00:00:24.660 --> 00:00:28.790
Over a period of months, pools of warm water

8
00:00:28.810 --> 00:00:32.850
migrate from the western Pacific to the coast of South America.

9
00:00:32.870 --> 00:00:36.930
The warm water travels along the equator, covering a distance roughly

10
00:00:36.950 --> 00:00:41.020
one-third the circumference of the Earth.

11
00:00:41.040 --> 00:00:45.160
If we look below the surface, we see this water forms a thick layer reaching

12
00:00:45.180 --> 00:00:49.200
depths of up to 1,000 feet. By December, the water starts

13
00:00:49.220 --> 00:00:53.380
to pile up along the coast of South America, which has potentially serious consequences

14
00:00:53.400 --> 00:00:57.470
for local fisheries. In 1998,

15
00:00:57.490 --> 00:01:01.670
the arrival of El Nino's warm waters off the coast of Peru triggered a sharp

16
00:01:01.690 --> 00:01:05.910
decline in marine plant life, called phytoplankton. These tiny

17
00:01:05.930 --> 00:01:10.050
organisms make up the base of the marine food web. As a result,

18
00:01:10.070 --> 00:01:14.170
fish catch that season dwindled, causing millions of dollars in losses to the fishing industry.

19
00:01:14.190 --> 00:01:18.220
Even though this year's El Nino is the strongest on record,

20
00:01:18.240 --> 00:01:22.280
ocean temperatures off the coast of South America are actually colder than they were

21
00:01:22.300 --> 00:01:26.380
in 1998. Which is good for phytoplankton and for fisheries.

22
00:01:26.400 --> 00:01:30.570
Our latest models show temperatures in the Pacific are cooling,

23
00:01:30.590 --> 00:01:34.590
suggesting we'll see a transition back to more normal conditions in summer.

24
00:01:34.610 --> 00:01:36.509
Music