Impact of Climate Change on Global Wheat Yields 

This data visualization shows predicted wheat yields through the end of this century based on an ensemble of crop and climate models. Climate model simulations from the international Climate Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 6 (CMIP6) were used. Each of the five climate models runs its own unique response to Earth’s atmosphere of greenhouse gas emission scenarios through the year 2100. The climate model simulations were then used as inputs for 12 state-of-the-art global crop models that are part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project (AgMIP), creating about 240 global climate-crop model simulations for each crop. 

Wheat may see an uptick in crop yields by about 17% by the late century if current climate change trends continue. This is due to projected increases in temperature, shifts in rainfall patterns and elevated surface carbon dioxide concentrations due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. 

Wheat, which grows best in temperate climates, may see a broader area where it can be grown in places such as the northern United States and Canada, North China Plains, Central Asia, southern Australia and East Africa as temperatures rise, but these gains may level off mid-century. 


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