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The future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to changes in climate is the single largest source of uncertainty in projections of sea level rise. If the ice sheet melted completely it would raise sea levels by 57 meters, a process that would unfold over millennia. One key to understanding how the ice sheet will respond in the future is to observe and analyze how the ice sheet has reacted to changes in climate over the past decades, where satellites observations are available. One key to understanding ice sheet change is to examine records of elevation change that show where the ice sheet is thinning and thickening due to changing environment. Recent analysis of incredibly precise surface elevations collected by NASA’s ICESat and ICESat-2 satellite laser altimeters reveals complex patters of ice sheet and ice shelf (floating extensions of the ice sheets) change that are the combined consequence of changes in melting by the ocean, changes in precipitation and, changes at the bed of the glacier where the ice sheet slides across the underlying bedrock. The researchers do this my finding locations where tracks of measured elevation intersect, measuring the change in elevation and correct for changes in the average density of the surface using models.

Coherent regional patters of elevation change reveal the underlying mechanism responsible causing ice sheet change. One of the most striking features in the data is the Kamb Ice Stream that once flowed rapidly into the Ross Ice Shelf but that stopped flowing due to an increase friction (resistance to flow) likely caused by changes in the availability of liquid water at its base. Strong patters of thinning are visible all along the Amundsen Cost where ice shelves are rapidly thinning in response to increased melting by warm ocean waters. Melting of ice shelves do not directly contribute to changes in sea level, since they are already floating, but they do indirectly impact how fast the grounded ice is able to flow into the ocean. Ice shelves are located at the fronts of the glaciers and help to regulate how fast the ice flows into the ocean. As the ice shelves thin they become less able to hold back the inland ice, causing the grounded glaciers to accelerate and thin. In the East, broad patters of thickening reveal that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is growing most likely in response to increases in precipitation relative to some unknown time in the past. The thickening is strongest along the coast of Dronning Maud Land where enhanced moisture transport has resulted in increased snowfall.

Despite the diversity of gains and losses, losses in the West (208 cubic kilometers of water per year or Gt) greatly outpace Gains (90 Gt per year) in the east resulting in a total Antarctic mass change loss of 118 Gt per year.
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As the Greenland Ice Sheet responds to warming oceans and atmosphere it has become one of the largest contributors to sea level rise and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. Scientists are working to determine more precisely how much more ice will be lost and when that loss will occur. One key approach to doing this is to analyze changes in the ice sheets elevation over the past decades where satellite observations are available. By finding the intersection of elevation track measurements collected by NASA’s ICESat (2003-2009) and ICESat-2 (2018-) satellite laser altimeters, researchers are able to make very precise measurements of elevation change that can be converted to estimates of mass change after correcting for changes snow density using models.

The combination of long time-span between measurements and the high accuracy of NASA’s satellite laser altimeters allows the researchers to make highly detailed maps of mass change that provide insights into the mechanism behind the ice sheets rapid rate of loss. Thinning can be seen around the periphery of the ice sheet where elevations are closest to sea level and rates of surface melting are highest. This pattern is punctuated by localized areas of extreme thinning where large glaciers come into contact with warm ocean waters. Unlike the uniform pattern of low-elevation thinning that is being driven by increased melting due to warmer summer air temperatures, these concentrated areas of thinning occur where outlet glacier have sped up. These glaciers have sped up in response to some combination of retreating ice front position, changes in the slipperiness at the bed of the glacier due to changes in liquid water at the ice-rock interface and due to change in the rate frontal melting due to an increase in the heat content of the ocean waters that come into contact with the glacier front.

Juxtaposed on the pattern of rapid thinning along the periphery of the ice sheet is a broad pattern of thickening in the high-elevation interior of the ice sheet. This pattern of thickening suggests that increases in snowfall, relative to sometime in the past, are partly compensating for increased losses due to enhanced melt and accelerated glacier flow. Overall low-elevation losses greatly outpace high-elevation gains resulting in 3200 cubic kilometers of water (Gt) being lost from the ice sheets and entering the oceans, raising global mean sea level by 8.9 mm.", "items": [], "extra_data": {} }, { "id": 319963, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4796/#media_group_319963", "widget": "Single image", "title": "", "caption": "", "description": "This high resolution still image depicts changes in Antarctic land ice thickness as measured by the ICESat (2003-2009) and ICESat-2 (2018-) satellites.", "items": [ { "id": 228394, "type": "media", "extra_data": null, "title": null, "caption": null, "instance": { "id": 396635, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a004700/a004796/land_ice_antarctica_print_still_3840x2160_print.jpg", "filename": "land_ice_antarctica_print_still_3840x2160_print.jpg", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "This high resolution still image depicts changes in Antarctic land ice thickness as measured by the ICESat (2003-2009) and ICESat-2 (2018-) satellites.", "width": 1024, "height": 576, "pixels": 589824 } }, { "id": 228392, "type": "media", "extra_data": null, "title": null, "caption": null, "instance": { "id": 396633, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a004700/a004796/land_ice_antarctica_print_still_3840x2160.tif", "filename": "land_ice_antarctica_print_still_3840x2160.tif", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "This high resolution still image depicts changes in Antarctic land ice thickness as measured by the ICESat (2003-2009) and ICESat-2 (2018-) satellites.", "width": 3840, "height": 2160, "pixels": 8294400 } }, { "id": 228393, "type": "media", "extra_data": null, "title": null, "caption": null, "instance": { "id": 396634, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a004700/a004796/land_ice_antarctica_print_still_5760x3240.tif", "filename": "land_ice_antarctica_print_still_5760x3240.tif", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "This high resolution still image depicts changes in Antarctic land ice thickness as measured by the ICESat (2003-2009) and ICESat-2 (2018-) satellites.", "width": 5760, "height": 3240, "pixels": 18662400 } } ], "extra_data": {} }, { "id": 319964, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4796/#media_group_319964", "widget": "Single image", "title": "", "caption": "", "description": "This high resolution still image depicts changes in Greenland land ice thickness as measured by the ICESat (2003-2009) and ICESat-2 (2018-) satellites.", "items": [ { "id": 228397, "type": "media", "extra_data": null, "title": null, "caption": null, "instance": { "id": 396638, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a004700/a004796/land_ice_greenland_print_still_3840x2160_print.jpg", "filename": "land_ice_greenland_print_still_3840x2160_print.jpg", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "This high resolution still image depicts changes in Greenland land ice thickness as measured by the ICESat (2003-2009) and ICESat-2 (2018-) satellites.", "width": 1024, "height": 576, "pixels": 589824 } }, { "id": 228395, "type": "media", "extra_data": null, "title": null, "caption": null, "instance": { "id": 396636, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a004700/a004796/land_ice_greenland_print_still_3840x2160.tif", "filename": "land_ice_greenland_print_still_3840x2160.tif", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "This high resolution still image depicts changes in Greenland land ice thickness as measured by the ICESat (2003-2009) and ICESat-2 (2018-) satellites.", "width": 3840, "height": 2160, "pixels": 8294400 } }, { "id": 228396, "type": "media", "extra_data": null, "title": null, "caption": null, "instance": { "id": 396637, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a004700/a004796/land_ice_greenland_print_still_5760x3240.tif", "filename": "land_ice_greenland_print_still_5760x3240.tif", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "This high resolution still image depicts changes in Greenland land ice thickness as measured by the ICESat (2003-2009) and ICESat-2 (2018-) satellites.", "width": 5760, "height": 3240, "pixels": 18662400 } } ], "extra_data": {} } ], "studio": "svs", "funding_sources": [ "ESE" ], "credits": [ { "role": "Visualizer", "people": [ { "name": "Kel Elkins", "employer": "USRA" } ] }, { "role": "Producer", "people": [ { "name": "Ryan Fitzgibbons", "employer": "USRA" } ] }, { "role": "Scientist", "people": [ { "name": "Thomas A. 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Through dozens of interviews and archival footage, the history, challenges and legacy of lidar are uncovered. || ", "release_date": "2023-01-19T16:00:00-05:00", "update_date": "2023-05-03T11:43:45.152126-04:00", "main_image": { "id": 552002, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a014200/a014261/seriestease_thumb_print.jpg", "filename": "seriestease_thumb_print.jpg", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "Series teaser for vertical Instagram Reels.Music: \"The Archives,\" Universal Production Music.Complete transcript available.", "width": 1024, "height": 1806, "pixels": 1849344 } }, { "id": 14116, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/14116/", "page_type": "Produced Video", "title": "Two Scientists Have a Frank and Honest Discussion about Antarctica", "description": "NASA Glaciologists Kelly Brunt and Alex Gardner discuss the history, challenges and evolution of mapping the Antarctic continent and what it means for science and society. || ", "release_date": "2022-03-18T00:00:00-04:00", "update_date": "2023-05-03T11:44:17.466414-04:00", "main_image": { "id": 372527, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a014100/a014116/TwoSci_thumb.png", "filename": "TwoSci_thumb.png", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "Music: \"Man vs. Clock,\" \"Curious,\" \"Transitions,\" \"Phosphorus,\" \"Hypervelocity,\" \"Double Agent,\" \"Bloom,\" \"Mirroring Thought,\" Universal Production Music.This video can be freely shared and downloaded. While the video in its entirety can be shared without permission, some individual imagery provided by pond5.com, Brooke Medley, Helen Millman, Michael Wethington, Robert Bindschadler, Kelly Brunt, The National Science Foundation, and The National Reconnaissance Office, and is obtained through permission and may not be excised or remixed in other products. Specific details on stock footage may be found here. For more information on NASA’s media guidelines, visit https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/guidelines/index.html.Complete transcript available.Notes on footage:00:00-00:06; 00:32-00:38: Provided by Michael Wethington00:07-00:13; 09:07-09:15: Provided by pond5.com02:06-02:14: Provided by Robert Bindschadler02:16-02:18; 06:26-06:30: Provided by Brooke Medley05:02-05:07: Provided by Helen Millman06:30-06:46; 07:04-07:08: Provided by the National Science Foundation07:11-08:15: Provided by the National Reconnaissance Office08:29-08:53: Provided by Kelly Brunt", "width": 1920, "height": 1080, "pixels": 2073600 } }, { "id": 13909, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/13909/", "page_type": "Produced Video", "title": "How NASA Satellites Help Model the Future of Climate", "description": "Music: \"Connections Established,\" \"Data Visions,\" Universal Production MusicComplete transcript available. || gpmclimatethumb.png (1673x938) [2.6 MB] || gpmclimatethumb_print.jpg (1024x574) [222.0 KB] || gpmclimatethumb_searchweb.png (320x180) [126.5 KB] || gpmclimatethumb_thm.png (80x40) [11.6 KB] || ClimMod_v3.webm (1920x1080) [37.3 MB] || GPMClimMod_Twitter.mp4 (1920x1080) [203.6 MB] || ClimMod_v3.mp4 (1920x1080) [342.0 MB] || ClimMod.en_US.srt [7.2 KB] || ClimMod.en_US.vtt [6.8 KB] || GPMClimMod_prores.mov (1920x1080) [4.6 GB] || ", "release_date": "2021-08-24T00:00:00-04:00", "update_date": "2025-01-06T01:35:16.228977-05:00", "main_image": { "id": 377581, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a013900/a013909/gpmclimatethumb.png", "filename": "gpmclimatethumb.png", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "Music: \"Connections Established,\" \"Data Visions,\" Universal Production MusicComplete transcript available.", "width": 1673, "height": 938, "pixels": 1569274 } }, { "id": 13600, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/13600/", "page_type": "Produced Video", "title": "NASA Mission Maps 16 Years of Ice Loss", "description": "Using the most advanced Earth-observing laser instrument NASA has ever flown in space, scientists have made precise, detailed measurements of how the elevation of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have changed over 16 years. The results provide insights into how the polar ice sheets are changing, demonstrating definitively that small gains of ice in East Antarctica are dwarfed by massive losses in West Antarctica. The scientists found the net loss of ice from Antarctica, along with Greenland’s shrinking ice sheet, has been responsible for 0.55 inches (14 millimeters) of sea level rise between 2003 and 2019 – slightly less than a third of the total amount of sea level rise observed in the world’s oceans. || ", "release_date": "2020-04-30T14:00:00-04:00", "update_date": "2023-05-03T13:44:59.955070-04:00", "main_image": { "id": 385465, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a013600/a013600/landicethumb_print.jpg", "filename": "landicethumb_print.jpg", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "Music: \"Frozen Waves,\" Universal Production MusicComplete transcript available.", "width": 1024, "height": 571, "pixels": 584704 } } ], "newer_versions": [], "older_versions": [], "alternate_versions": [] }