{ "id": 12251, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/12251/", "page_type": "Produced Video", "title": "Ten-Year Gap in Major Hurricanes Continues", "description": "Could the first tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season break the 10-year “hurricane drought” record?It has been a decade since the last major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, has made landfall in the United States. This is the longest period of time for the United States to avoid a major hurricane since reliable records began in 1850. According to a NASA study, a 10-year gap comes along only every 270 years. The National Hurricane Center calls any Category 3 or more intense hurricane a “major” storm. It should be noted that hurricanes making landfall as less than Category 3 can still cause extreme damage, with heavy rains and coastal storm surges. Such was the case with Hurricane Sandy in 2012.Timothy Hall, a research scientist who studies hurricanes at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York and colleague Kelly Hereid, who works for ACE Tempest Re, a reinsurance firm based in Connecticut, ran a statistical hurricane model based on a record of Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1950 to 2012 and sea surface temperature data. The researchers ran 1,000 computer simulations of the period from 1950-2012 – in effect simulating 63,000 separate Atlantic hurricane seasons. They also found that there is approximately a 40% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall in the United States every year. These visualizations show hurricane tracks from 1980 through 2015. Green tracks are storms that did not make landfall in the U.S.; yellow tracks are storms that made landfall but were not Category 3 or higher; and red tracks are Category 3 or higher hurricanes that did make landfall.Research: The frequency and duration of U.S. hurricane droughtsJournal: Geophysical Research Letters, May 5, 2015 || ", "release_date": "2016-05-27T12:00:00-04:00", "update_date": "2023-05-03T13:48:35.261447-04:00", "main_image": { "id": 423957, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a012200/a012251/YOUTUBE_HQ-12251_HurricaneDrought2016_FinalComp_youtube_hq.00001_print.jpg", "filename": "YOUTUBE_HQ-12251_HurricaneDrought2016_FinalComp_youtube_hq.00001_print.jpg", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "Hurricane tracks from 1980 through 2015. Green tracks did not make landfall in US; yellow tracks made landfall but were not Category 3 or higher hurricanes at landfall; red tracks made landfall and were Category 3 or higher. A corresponding chart on the right accumulates the number and types of storms for each year.", "width": 1024, "height": 576, "pixels": 589824 }, "main_video": { "id": 423937, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a012200/a012251/12251_HurricaneDrought_Prores.mov", "filename": "12251_HurricaneDrought_Prores.mov", "media_type": "Movie", "alt_text": "Complete transcript available.Watch this video on the NASA Goddard YouTube channel.Music credits: Climb the Ladder by Kurt Oldman in the KillerTracks Catalog", "width": 1920, "height": 1080, "pixels": 2073600 }, "main_credits": { "Visualizations by": [ { "name": "Greg Shirah", "employer": "NASA/GSFC" } ], "Scientific consulting by": [ { "name": "Timothy Hall", "employer": "NASA/GSFC GISS" }, { "name": "Kelly Hereid", "employer": "ACE Tempest Reinsurance, Ltd." } ], "Produced by": [ { "name": "Joy Ng", "employer": "USRA" } ] }, "progress": "Complete", "media_groups": [ { "id": 333868, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/12251/#media_group_333868", "widget": "Basic text with HTML", "title": "", "caption": "", "description": "Could the first tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season break the 10-year “hurricane drought” record?

It has been a decade since the last major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, has made landfall in the United States. This is the longest period of time for the United States to avoid a major hurricane since reliable records began in 1850. According to a NASA study, a 10-year gap comes along only every 270 years.

The National Hurricane Center calls any Category 3 or more intense hurricane a “major” storm. It should be noted that hurricanes making landfall as less than Category 3 can still cause extreme damage, with heavy rains and coastal storm surges. Such was the case with Hurricane Sandy in 2012.

Timothy Hall, a research scientist who studies hurricanes at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York and colleague Kelly Hereid, who works for ACE Tempest Re, a reinsurance firm based in Connecticut, ran a statistical hurricane model based on a record of Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1950 to 2012 and sea surface temperature data.

The researchers ran 1,000 computer simulations of the period from 1950-2012 – in effect simulating 63,000 separate Atlantic hurricane seasons. They also found that there is approximately a 40% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall in the United States every year.

These visualizations show hurricane tracks from 1980 through 2015. Green tracks are storms that did not make landfall in the U.S.; yellow tracks are storms that made landfall but were not Category 3 or higher; and red tracks are Category 3 or higher hurricanes that did make landfall.

Research: The frequency and duration of U.S. hurricane droughts
Journal: Geophysical Research Letters, May 5, 2015", "items": [], "extra_data": {} }, { "id": 333869, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/12251/#media_group_333869", "widget": "Video player", "title": "", "caption": "", "description": "

Complete transcript available.

Watch this video on the NASA Goddard YouTube channel.

Music credits: Climb the Ladder by Kurt Oldman in the KillerTracks Catalog

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Satellites and aircraft watch as storms form, travel across the ocean and sometimes, make landfall. After the hurricanes have passed, the satellites and aircraft see the aftermath of hurricanes, from downed forests to mass power loss. || ", "release_date": "2019-06-03T12:00:00-04:00", "update_date": "2023-05-03T13:45:55.673932-04:00", "main_image": { "id": 395572, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a013200/a013216/13216_NASA_Has_Eyes_On_The_Atlantic_Hurricane_Season_YouTube.00050_print.jpg", "filename": "13216_NASA_Has_Eyes_On_The_Atlantic_Hurricane_Season_YouTube.00050_print.jpg", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "Complete transcript available.Music credits: “Northern Breeze” by Denis Levaillant [SACEM], “Stunning Horizon” by Maxime Lebidois [SACEM], Ronan Maillard [SACEM], “Magnetic Force” by JC Lemay [SACEM] from Killer TracksWatch this video on the NASA Goddard YouTube channel.This video can be freely shared and downloaded. While the video in its entirety can be shared without permission, some individual imagery provided by pond5.com is obtained through permission and may not be excised or remixed in other products. Specific details on stock footage may be found here. For more information on NASA’s media guidelines, visit https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/guidelines/index.html.Notes on footage:• 0:03 - 0:17 provided by Pond5• 1:38 - 1.43 provided by Pond5• 1:49 - 1:52 provided by Pond5• 2:21 - 1:27 provided by Pond5", "width": 1024, "height": 576, "pixels": 589824 } }, { "id": 12269, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/12269/", "page_type": "Produced Video", "title": "NASA On Air: Ten-Year Gap In Major Hurricanes Continues For U.S. (5/31/2016)", "description": "LEAD: Bonnie, the second tropical storm of the 2016 season, drenched parts of the Atlantic coast from Georgia to Rhode Island with up to 8 inches this past Memorial Day weekend. What’s ahead for the hurricane season of 2016?1. Over the past 10 years there have been 69 Atlantic hurricanes but during that time no hurricanes of Category 3 or higher have hit the U.S. coastline. Such a string of lucky years is likely to happen only once in 270 years, according to a NASA study.2. Storms less than Category 3, such as Sandy in 2012, can still be dangerous.3. But what about this upcoming hurricane season? Statistical analysis indicates that for any given year there is a 40% chance of a Category 3 or higher hurricane landing across the U.S. coastline.TAG: But remember it only takes one storm in your area. 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What’s ahead for the hurricane season of 2016?1. Over the past 10 years there have been 69 Atlantic hurricanes but during that time no hurricanes of Category 3 or higher have hit the U.S. coastline. Such a string of lucky years is likely to happen only once in 270 years, according to a NASA study.2. Storms less than Category 3, such as Sandy in 2012, can still be dangerous.3. But what about this upcoming hurricane season? Statistical analysis indicates that for any given year there is a 40% chance of a Category 3 or higher hurricane landing across the U.S. coastline.TAG: But remember it only takes one storm in your area. 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Green tracks did not make landfall in US; yellow tracks made landfall but were not major hurricanes at the time; red tracks made landfall and were major hurricanes.This video is also available on our YouTube channel. || final_comp.2574_print.jpg (1024x576) [64.4 KB] || final_comp.2574_searchweb.png (320x180) [51.3 KB] || final_comp.webm (1920x1080) [6.2 MB] || final_comp.mp4 (1920x1080) [7.9 MB] || final_comp (1920x1080) [64.0 KB] || 2015_final_comp (1920x1080) [64.0 KB] || final_comp.m4v (640x360) [4.2 MB] || ", "release_date": "2015-05-13T13:00:00-04:00", "update_date": "2023-05-03T13:49:43.593343-04:00", "main_image": { "id": 443458, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a004200/a004287/final_comp.2574_print.jpg", "filename": "final_comp.2574_print.jpg", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "Hurricane tracks from 1980 through 2014. Green tracks did not make landfall in US; yellow tracks made landfall but were not major hurricanes at the time; red tracks made landfall and were major hurricanes.This video is also available on our YouTube channel.", "width": 1024, "height": 576, "pixels": 589824 } }, { "id": 11870, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/11870/", "page_type": "Produced Video", "title": "What Are The Chances Of Another Katrina?", "description": "The U.S. hasn’t experienced the landfall of a Category 3 hurricane or larger since 2005, when Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma all hit the U.S. coast. According to a new NASA study, a string of nine years without a major hurricane landfall in the U.S. is Iikely to come along only once every 177 years.The current nine-year “drought” is the longest period of time that has passed without a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. since reliable records began in 1850, said Timothy Hall, a research scientist who studies hurricanes at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York.The National Hurricane Center calls any Category 3 or more intense hurricane a “major” storm. Hall and colleague Kelly Hereid, who works for ACE Tempest Re, a reinsurance firm based in Connecticut, ran a statistical hurricane model based on a record of Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1950 to 2012 and sea surface temperature data.The researchers ran 1,000 computer simulations of the period from 1950-2012 – in effect simulating 63,000 separate Atlantic hurricane seasons. They found that a nine-year period without a major landfall is likely to occur once every 177 years on average.While the study did not delve into the meteorological causes behind this lack of major hurricane landfalls, Hall said it appears it is a result of luck.Research: The frequency and duration of U.S. hurricane droughts.Journal: Geophysical Research Letters, May 5, 2015.Link to paper: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL063652/full.Here is the YouTube video. || ", "release_date": "2015-05-13T13:00:00-04:00", "update_date": "2023-05-03T13:49:43.727071-04:00", "main_image": { "id": 443248, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a011800/a011870/G2015-045-HurricaneDrought-1920-Master_youtube_hq_print.jpg", "filename": "G2015-045-HurricaneDrought-1920-Master_youtube_hq_print.jpg", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "According to a new NASA study, a string of nine years without a major hurricane landfall in the U.S. is Iikely to come along only once every 177 years. This video explains the findings of this study. For complete transcript, click here.", "width": 1024, "height": 576, "pixels": 589824 } }, { "id": 11871, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/11871/", "page_type": "Produced Video", "title": "Instagram: What Are The Chances Of Another Katrina?", "description": "The U.S. hasn’t experienced the landfall of a Category 3 hurricane or larger since 2005, when Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma all hit the U.S. coast. According to a new NASA study, a string of nine years without a major hurricane landfall in the U.S. is Iikely to come along only once every 177 years.The current nine-year “drought” is the longest period of time that has passed without a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. since reliable records began in 1850, said Timothy Hall, a research scientist who studies hurricanes at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York.The National Hurricane Center calls any Category 3 or more intense hurricane a “major” storm. Hall and colleague Kelly Hereid, who works for ACE Tempest Re, a reinsurance firm based in Connecticut, ran a statistical hurricane model based on a record of Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1950 to 2012 and sea surface temperature data.The researchers ran 1,000 computer simulations of the period from 1950-2012 – in effect simulating 63,000 separate Atlantic hurricane seasons. They found that a nine-year period without a major landfall is likely to occur once every 177 years on average.While the study did not delve into the meteorological causes behind this lack of major hurricane landfalls, Hall said it appears it is a result of luck.Research: The frequency and duration of U.S. hurricane droughts.Journal: Geophysical Research Letters, May 5, 2015.Link to paper: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL063652/full.Here is the YouTube video. || ", "release_date": "2015-05-13T11:00:00-04:00", "update_date": "2023-05-03T13:49:43.822344-04:00", "main_image": { "id": 443257, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a011800/a011871/HurricaneDrought_INST_print.jpg", "filename": "HurricaneDrought_INST_print.jpg", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "For complete transcript, click here.", "width": 1024, "height": 1024, "pixels": 1048576 } } ], "alternate_versions": [] }