1. Analysis of current greenhouse gas emission trends indicate that the Southwest and Central Plains have an 80% likelihood of megadroughts between the years 2050 and 2099.
2. This is the first study to compare future drought projections directly to drought records from the last 1000 years.
TAG: The 1930’s Dust Bowl only lasted a decade. These new results indicate future droughts may last at least 30 to 35 years.
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These new results indicate future droughts may last at least 30 to 35 years.", "width": 1920, "height": 1080, "pixels": 2073600 } }, { "id": 283820, "type": "media", "extra_data": null, "title": null, "caption": null, "instance": { "id": 446458, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a011700/a011773/WC_Drought-1920-MASTER_iPad_1920x0180.webm", "filename": "WC_Drought-1920-MASTER_iPad_1920x0180.webm", "media_type": "Movie", "alt_text": "LEAD: NASA study finds carbon emissions could dramatically increase risk of U.S. megadroughts.1. Analysis of current greenhouse gas emission trends indicate that the Southwest and Central Plains have an 80% likelihood of megadroughts between the years 2050 and 2099.2. This is the first study to compare future drought projections directly to drought records from the last 1000 years.TAG: The 1930’s Dust Bowl only lasted a decade. These new results indicate future droughts may last at least 30 to 35 years.", "width": 1920, "height": 1080, "pixels": 2073600 } } ], "extra_data": {} }, { "id": 338568, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/11773/#media_group_338568", "widget": "Basic text", "title": "For More Information", "caption": "", "description": "See the following sources:\n\n* [http://www.nasa.gov/earthrightnow](http://www.nasa.gov/earthrightnow)\n* [http://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/february/nasa-study-finds-carbon-emissions-could-dramatically-increase-risk-of-us/#.VN0FB8cl6eU](http://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/february/nasa-study-finds-carbon-emissions-could-dramatically-increase-risk-of-us/#.VN0FB8cl6eU)", "items": [], "extra_data": {} } ], "studio": "gms", "funding_sources": [ "PAO" ], "credits": [ { "role": "Producer", "people": [ { "name": "Howard Joe Witte", "employer": "ADNET Systems, Inc." } ] }, { "role": "Data visualizer", "people": [ { "name": "Greg Shirah", "employer": "NASA/GSFC" }, { "name": "Cheng Zhang", "employer": "USRA" } ] }, { "role": "Video editor", "people": [ { "name": "Joy Ng", "employer": "USRA" } ] } ], "missions": [], "series": [], "tapes": [], "papers": [], "datasets": [], "nasa_science_categories": [ "Earth" ], "keywords": [ "Drought", "Drought Effect", "Greenhouse Effect", "HDTV", "Model Data", "Temperature" ], "recommended_pages": [], "related": [ { "id": 11772, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/11772/", "page_type": "Produced Video", "title": "Instagram: Megadroughts Projected For American Southwest", "description": "Droughts in the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains at the end of this century could be drier and longer compared to drought conditions seen in those regions in the last 1,000 years, according to a new NASA study.The study, published Feb 12 in the journal Science Advances, is based on projections from several climate models, including one sponsored by NASA. The research found the risk of severe droughts in those regions would increase if human-produced greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase.\"Natural droughts like the 1930s Dust Bowl and the current drought in the Southwest have historically lasted maybe a decade or a little less,\" said Ben Cook, climate scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University in New York City, and lead author of the study. \"What these results are saying is we're going to get a drought similar to those events, but it is probably going to last at least 30 to 35 years.\" || ", "release_date": "2015-02-12T14:00:00-05:00", "update_date": "2023-05-03T13:49:59.427750-04:00", "main_image": { "id": 446437, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a011700/a011772/Drought_INST4_print.jpg", "filename": "Drought_INST4_print.jpg", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "For complete transcript, click here.", "width": 1024, "height": 1024, "pixels": 1048576 } }, { "id": 4270, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4270/", "page_type": "Visualization", "title": "Megadroughts in U.S. West Projected to be Worst of the Millennium", "description": "Soil moisture (surface down to 30cm) from 1950 to 2095 based on a 10 year moving average of 17 CMIP5 models using a high future emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). The year shown is the middle of the 10-year moving average.This video is also available on our YouTube channel. || print10yr_-3to3_rcp85_1700_print.jpg (1024x576) [75.8 KB] || print10yr_-3to3_rcp85_1700.png (5760x3240) [10.6 MB] || 10yr_-3to3_rcp85_1700_searchweb.png (320x180) [48.3 KB] || 10yr_-3to3_rcp85_1700_thm.png (80x40) [4.8 KB] || 10yr_-3to3_rcp85.webm (1920x1080) [1.7 MB] || 10yr_-3to3_rcp85.mp4 (1920x1080) [3.3 MB] || 10yr_-3to3_rcp85 (1920x1080) [32.0 KB] || 10yr_-3to3_rcp85_comp_1080p30.mp4 (1920x1080) [3.6 MB] || comp_rcp85 (1920x1080) [32.0 KB] || 10yr_-3to3_rcp85.m4v (640x360) [2.0 MB] || 10yr_-3to3_rcp85.hwshow [195 bytes] || print10yr_-3to3_rcp85_1700.hwshow [205 bytes] || ", "release_date": "2015-02-12T13:30:00-05:00", "update_date": "2024-10-09T00:04:52.127377-04:00", "main_image": { "id": 446614, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a004200/a004270/print10yr_-3to3_rcp85_1700_print.jpg", "filename": "print10yr_-3to3_rcp85_1700_print.jpg", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "Print resolution still of 2090->2099 average with the RCP8.5 scenario", "width": 1024, "height": 576, "pixels": 589824 } }, { "id": 11776, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/11776/", "page_type": "Produced Video", "title": "Megadroughts Projected for American West", "description": "For complete transcript, click here. || 21st_Century_Drought_final-H264_Good_1280x720_29.97_print.jpg (1024x576) [149.5 KB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final-H264_Good_1280x720_29.9700052_print.jpg (1024x576) [144.5 KB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final-H264_Good_1280x720_29.97_searchweb.png (320x180) [109.6 KB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final-H264_Good_1280x720_29.97_web.png (320x180) [109.6 KB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final-H264_Good_1280x720_29.97_thm.png (80x40) [7.7 KB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final_appletv_subtitles.m4v (960x540) [75.4 MB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final-H264_Good_1280x720_29.97.webm (1280x720) [20.6 MB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final_1280x720.wmv (1280x720) [84.1 MB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final_appletv.m4v (960x540) [75.4 MB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final_ipod_lg.m4v (640x360) [30.5 MB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final_720x480.wmv (720x480) [74.9 MB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final_nasaportal.mov (640x360) [68.5 MB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final_ipod_sm.mp4 (320x240) [15.2 MB] || 21st_Century_Drought.en_US.srt [3.9 KB] || 21st_Century_Drought.en_US.vtt [3.9 KB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final_youtube_hq.mov (1280x720) [183.1 MB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final-H264_Best_1280x720_59.94.mov (1280x720) [1.6 GB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final_prores.mov (1280x720) [2.6 GB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final-H264_Good_1280x720_29.97.mov (1280x720) [183.0 MB] || ", "release_date": "2015-02-12T13:30:00-05:00", "update_date": "2023-05-03T13:49:59.763802-04:00", "main_image": { "id": 446286, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a011700/a011776/21st_Century_Drought_final-H264_Good_1280x720_29.97_print.jpg", "filename": "21st_Century_Drought_final-H264_Good_1280x720_29.97_print.jpg", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "For complete transcript, click here.", "width": 1024, "height": 576, "pixels": 589824 } } ], "sources": [], "products": [], "newer_versions": [], "older_versions": [], "alternate_versions": [] }