El Niño: GMAO Daily Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly from 1997/1998 and 2015/2016

  • Released Thursday, February 25, 2016
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This visualization shows how the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) data and subsurface Temperature Anomaly from the 1997 El Nino year compares to the 2015 El Nino year. The visualization shows how the 1997 event started from colder-than-average sea surface temperatures – but the 2015 event started with warmer-than-average temperatures not only in the Pacific but also in in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans.
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Every two to seven years, an unusually warm pool of water -- sometimes two to three degrees Celsius higher than normal -- develops across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to create a natural short-term climate change event. This warm condition, known as El Niño, affects the local aquatic environment, but also spurs extreme weather patterns around the world, from flooding in California to droughts in Australia.

In 2015 El Niño unfolded in the Pacific Ocean, as sea surface temperatures create different patterns than seen in the 1997-1998 El Niño. Computer models are just one tool that NASA scientists are using to study this large El Nino event, and compare it to other events in the past."The start of an El Niño is important," said Robin Kovach, a research scientist with the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The visualization shows how the 1997 event started from colder-than-average sea surface temperatures – but the 2015 event started with warmer-than-average temperatures not only in the Pacific but also in in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans."The '97 El Niño was much stronger in the Eastern Pacific, with much warmer water up to the coast of South America," Kovach said. In 2015, the warmest waters are instead in the Central Pacific and extend west of the International Date Line.

The water temperature variations typical of El Niño are not only at the surface of the equatorial Pacific, but below the surface as well. And these variations were also different in 2015, compared to 1997. At the height of the El Niño in November, colder-than-average temperatures in the Western Pacific and warmer-than-average temperatures in the Eastern Pacific were stronger and extended deeper in 1997 than in 2015. Goddard’s computer models, with input from ocean buoys, atmospheric models, satellite data and other sources, can also simulate what ocean water temperatures could do in the coming months. The GMAO seasonal forecast, which takes 18 hours to complete, and creates more than nine terabytes of data, shows that this 2015 El Niño could be different until the end. "In the past, very strong El Niño events typically transition to neutral conditions and then a La Niña event," said Kovach. February computer model runs forecast a return to normal sea surface temperatures by June. The latest Feb 5, 2016 forecast does not yet predict below normal sea surface temperatures that would result in a large La Niña. As of Feb. 14, 2016, the latest ocean computer model shows colder-than-average water temperatures off the South American coast from Ecuador to Panama. "This current El Niño has been different so it will be interesting to see what happens in the next forecast and the coming months."

color table for sea surface temperature anomaly and subsurface temperature anomaly in degrees celsius

color table for sea surface temperature anomaly and subsurface temperature anomaly in degrees celsius

Visualization showing the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office(GMAO)'s Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly data and Subsurface Temperature Anomaly data from Jan 1, 2015 through Feb 14, 2016. The equator and international dateline are emphasized with a black outline.

2015 Date overlay for the GMAO sea surface temperature frame sequence

2015 Date overlay for the GMAO sea surface temperature frame sequence

This is the same 2015 frame sequence without the date overlay.

This is the same 2015 frame sequence without the date overlay.

Visualization of Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly data and subsurface temperature anomaly data from Jan 1, 1997 though Feb 14, 1998. This version has the colorbar overlay included.

This is the same sequence of Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly data and subsurface temperature anomaly data without the colorbar overlay.

This is the same sequence of Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly data and subsurface temperature anomaly data without the colorbar overlay.

This is the 1997 data sequence of GMAO's sea surface temperature anomaly data without the date overlay.

This is the 1997 data sequence of GMAO's sea surface temperature anomaly data without the date overlay.

Since both the 1997 data and 2015 data are timed at the same rate, this is the Month overlay for both time periods

Since both the 1997 data and 2015 data are timed at the same rate, this is the Month overlay for both time periods

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Credits

Please give credit for this item to:
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio
The GEOS-5 data used in this study/project have been provided by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center through the online data portal in the NASA Center for Climate Simulation

Release date

This page was originally published on Thursday, February 25, 2016.
This page was last updated on Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 12:07 AM EST.


Series

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Datasets used in this visualization

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