What Are The Chances Of Another Katrina?

LEAD: The first tropical storm of 2015 drenched North Carolina this week (May 10) with 6 inches of rain and 60 mph winds. Ana hit even before June 1, the official start date of the 2015 hurricane season. What’s ahead for the summer? Will it be like the past 9 years?1. Over the past 9 years there have been 59 Atlantic hurricanes. But during that time no hurricanes of Category 3 or higher have hit the U.S. coastline. Such a string of lucky years is likely to happen only once in 177 years, according to a new NASA study.2. Weaker storms than Category 3 can still be dangerous. Sandy in 2012, Irene in 2011 and Ike in 2008 together caused over 100 billion dollars of damage.3. But what about this upcoming hurricane season? Statistical analysis indicates that for any given year there is 40% chance of a Category 3 or higher hurricane landing across the U.S. coastline.TAG: But remember it only takes one storm in your area. Be prepared this summer. For More InformationSee [www.nasa.gov/hurricanes](www.nasa.gov/hurricanes) Related pages

Hurricane tracks from 1980 through 2014. Green tracks did not make landfall in US; yellow tracks made landfall but were not major hurricanes at the time; red tracks made landfall and were major hurricanes.This video is also available on our YouTube channel. Background Earth layer Tracks layer with alpha Dates layer with alpha Table layer with alpha Storm tracks are shown from 2006 through 2014. During this period, no storms made landfall in the continental US that were category 3 or up. Accumulated tracks (2006 through 2014) with alpha Print resolution still of 2005 season Print resolution still from 2006 through 2014, the major hurricane drought period Print resolution still of 2014 season Print resolution still of Atlantic hurricane categories table. Green blocks indicate storms that missed CONUS. Yellow blocks indicate storms that made landfall in CONUS, but were not category 3+. Red blocks indicate storms that made landfall in CONUS and where category 3+ at the time of landfall. States that are hit by a hurricane that's category 3 or higher with alpha Statistacal analyses from hurricane track data back to 1850 indicate that for any particular Atlantic Hurricane season, there is approximately a 40% chance that a major hurricane (categrory 3 or higher) will make landfall in the continental United States. However, during the 9-year period from 2006 to 2014, no major hurricanes have made landfall. These visualizations show hurricane tracks from 1980 through 2014. Green tracks are storms that did not make landfall in the continental US; yellow tracks are storms made landfall but were not category 3 or higher when they made landfall; and, red tracks are storms that made landfall and where category 3 or higher. A corresponding chart on the right accumulates the number and types of storms for each year. Notice the large gap in any red blocks between 2006 and 2014. Related pages

For complete transcript, click here. The U.S. hasn’t experienced the landfall of a Category 3 hurricane or larger since 2005, when Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma all hit the U.S. coast. According to a new NASA study, a string of nine years without a major hurricane landfall in the U.S. is Iikely to come along only once every 177 years.The current nine-year “drought” is the longest period of time that has passed without a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. since reliable records began in 1850, said Timothy Hall, a research scientist who studies hurricanes at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York.The National Hurricane Center calls any Category 3 or more intense hurricane a “major” storm. Hall and colleague Kelly Hereid, who works for ACE Tempest Re, a reinsurance firm based in Connecticut, ran a statistical hurricane model based on a record of Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1950 to 2012 and sea surface temperature data.The researchers ran 1,000 computer simulations of the period from 1950-2012 – in effect simulating 63,000 separate Atlantic hurricane seasons. They found that a nine-year period without a major landfall is likely to occur once every 177 years on average.While the study did not delve into the meteorological causes behind this lack of major hurricane landfalls, Hall said it appears it is a result of luck.Research: The frequency and duration of U.S. hurricane droughts.Journal: Geophysical Research Letters, May 5, 2015.Link to paper: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL063652/full.Here is the YouTube video. For More InformationSee [http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/no-major-us-hurricane-landfalls-in-nine-years-luck](http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/no-major-us-hurricane-landfalls-in-nine-years-luck) Related pages