Untitled

These data visualizations from the NASA Center for Climate Simulation and NASA s AR5 relies on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) effort, an international effort among the climate modeling community to coordinate climate change experiments. These visualizations represent the mean output of how certain groups of CMIP5 models responded to four different scenarios defined by the IPCC called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). These four RCPs – 2.6, 4.5, 6 and 8.5 – represent a wide range of potential worldwide greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration scenarios for the coming century. The pathways are numbered based on the expected Watts per square meter – essentially a measure of how much heat energy is being trapped by the climate system – each scenario would produce. The pathways are partly based on the ultimate concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The current carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is around 400 parts per million, up from less than 300 parts per million at the end of the 19th century.The carbon dioxide concentrations in the year 2100 for each RCP are:RCP 2.6: 421 ppmRCP 4.5: 538 ppmRCP 6: 670 ppmRCP 8.5: 936 ppmEach visualization represents the mean output of a different number of models for each RCP, because data from all models in the CMIP5 project was not available in the same format for visualization for each RCP. All of the models compare a projection of temperatures and precipitation from 2006-2099 to a baseline historical average from 1971-2000. Thus, the values shown for each year represent the departure for that year compared to the observed average global surface temperature from 1971-2000. The IPCC report used 1986-2005 as a baseline period, making its reported anomalies slightly different from those shown in the visualizations. Sample animation of RCP 8.5. This animation starts with the temperature scenerio and later dissolves into the precipitation scenerio. Sample animation of RCP 6.0. This animation starts with the temperature scenerio and later dissolves into the precipitation scenerio. Sample animation of RCP 4.5. This animation starts with the temperature scenerio and later dissolves into the precipitation scenerio. Sample animation of RCP 2.6. This animation starts with the temperature scenerio and later dissolves into the precipitation scenerio. Animation of RCP 8.5 without annotations or the background star layer. This layer was used to create the above composite. Animation of RCP 6.0 without annotations or the background star layer. This layer was used to create the above composite. Animation of RCP 4.5 without annotations or the background star layer. This layer was used to create the above composite. Animation of RCP 2.6 without annotations or the background star layer. This layer was used to create the above composite. Colorbar for IPCC temperature anomalies ranging from -1.0 to 25.0 degrees Fahrenheit. Colorbar for IPCC precipitation anomaly percent change ranging from 50% less than normal (drier) to over 100% greater than normal (wetter). Date overlay to be used with the above animations. Moving star background that can be used with the above animations.

These data visualizations from the NASA Center for Climate Simulation and NASA s AR5 relies on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) effort, an international effort among the climate modeling community to coordinate climate change experiments. These visualizations represent the mean output of how of how certain groups of CMIP5 models responded to four different scenarios defined by the IPCC called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). These four RCPs – 2.6, 4.5, 6 and 8.5 – represent a wide range of potential worldwide greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration scenarios for the coming century. The pathways are numbered based on the expected Watts per square meter – essentially a measure of how much heat energy is being trapped by the climate system – each scenario would produce. The pathways are partly based on the ultimate concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The current carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is around 400 parts per million, up from less than 300 parts per million at the end of the 19th century.The carbon dioxide concentrations in the year 2100 for each RCP are:RCP 2.6: 421 ppmRCP 4.5: 538 ppmRCP 6: 670 ppmRCP 8.5: 936 ppmEach visualization represents the mean output of a different number of models for each RCP, because data from all models in the CMIP5 project was not available in the same format for visualization for each RCP. All of the models compare a projection of temperatures from 2006-2099 to a baseline historical average from 1971-2000. Thus, the values shown for each year represent the departure for that year compared to the observed average global surface temperature from 1971-2000. The IPCC report used 1986-2005 as a baseline period, making its reported anomalies slightly different from those shown in the visualizations. Animation of RCP 8.5 without dates. Animation of RCP 6.0 without dates. Animation of RCP 4.5 without dates. Animation of RCP 2.6 without dates. Colorbar for IPCC temperature anomalies ranging from -1.0 to 25.0 degrees Fahrenheit. Correlated year overlay for each of the above animations. Composite sequence of ensemble RCP 8.5 with date overlay and legend composited.

New data visualizations from the NASA Center for Climate Simulation and NASA s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.To produce visualizations that show temperature and precipitation changes similar to those included in the IPCC report, the NASA Center for Climate Simulation calculated mean model results for each of the four emissions scenarios. The final products are visual representations how much temperature and precipitation patterns would change through 2100 compared to the historical average from the end of the 20th century. The changes shown compare the model projections to the average temperature and precipitation benchmarks observed from 1971-2000. This baseline is different from the IPCC report, which uses a 1986-2005 baseline. Because the reference period from 1986-2005 was slightly warmer than 1971-2000, the visualizations are slightly different than those in the report, even though the same model data is used. Climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimate global temperature and precipitation patterns will change throughout the 21st century given current rising greenhouse gas concentrations. This visualization is based on a scenario in which carbon dioxide concentrations reach 670 parts per million by 2100, up from around 400 ppm today. Credit: NASA Center for Climate Simulation/Scientific Visualization StudioFor complete transcript, click here.This video is also available on our YouTube channel.