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Huffman: Late in the summer, moisture starts coming up

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the west coast of Mexico and entering the southwestern U.S. And you transition

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from a relatively dry early season to something that's more prone to

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thunderstorms and the attendant flash floods. Relatively small amounts

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of rain in a desert condition can lead to a flash flood, even

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if it's a long way away. The ground is not very good at absorbing water and so

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instead it very quickly runs off and can run down channels for miles, perhaps catching

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people unaware.

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Huffman: In a general sort of way,

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we know that it rains in the summer and doesn't rain the rest of the year. But, the

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question is: Is it strong or is it weak? These kinds of long-range forecasts

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are still quite challenging. Even at the shorter scale, the monsoon

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consists of what are called breaks and then surges. And being able to forecast

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those breaks and surges a few days or weeks in advance would be a really

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great thing. There's a certain capability to do that now, but if we

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understand the precipitation processes better that will give us a better handle on

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how the heat is released in the dynamical systems that are

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contributing to the breaks and surges.

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