1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:07,430 2 00:00:07,450 --> 00:00:10,750 2015 was a scorcher of a year in the instrumental record. 3 00:00:10,770 --> 00:00:14,510 It was very, very clearly the warmest year by a long chalk. 4 00:00:14,530 --> 00:00:18,220 2014 was also a record year, but only by a little bit. 5 00:00:18,240 --> 00:00:21,540 But 2015 has totally knocked that into the grass. 6 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:27,560 The temperatures are about 1.8 Fahrenheit above what it was in the 19th century, and 7 00:00:27,580 --> 00:00:36,500 that's about halfway to the target that the UN Climate Talks have identified as the 8 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:41,980 target we should be avoiding if we want to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. 9 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:48,508 10 00:00:48,528 --> 00:00:50,220 11 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:55,140 This record year really is just emphasizing the fact that there is a very, very strong 12 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:59,360 long-term trend in temperature that we have associated very strongly with the 13 00:00:59,380 --> 00:01:02,240 human emissions of greenhouse gases. 14 00:01:02,260 --> 00:01:11,080 15 00:01:11,100 --> 00:01:15,940 While one degree might not mean very much to you basically on a daily cycle, 16 00:01:15,960 --> 00:01:19,530 it really gets noticed by the planet and the systems on the planet. 17 00:01:19,550 --> 00:01:23,360 Glaciers notice that the planet is more than a degree warmer than it is. 18 00:01:23,380 --> 00:01:27,600 We've seen glaciers retreat almost everywhere where there are glaciers on the planet. 19 00:01:27,620 --> 00:01:31,750 We've seen shifts in eco-zones, so where ecosystems are happiest 20 00:01:31,770 --> 00:01:36,740 these have been moving poleward and upward over the decades, 21 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:37,710 and that's going to continue. 22 00:01:37,730 --> 00:01:46,550 23 00:01:46,570 --> 00:01:50,670 We're currently in a big El Nino event, and that's going to persist through the spring 24 00:01:50,690 --> 00:01:53,430 and perhaps into the summer. 25 00:01:53,450 --> 00:01:56,380 2016 is going to start off very, very warm as well, and in fact, 26 00:01:56,400 --> 00:02:01,640 it might be as warm as 2015 going through the rest of the year. 27 00:02:01,660 --> 00:02:06,120 We actually anticipate that 2016 might also be a record warm year, and that will be the 28 00:02:06,140 --> 00:02:11,120 first time that we've had three record warm years in a row in the whole record. 29 00:02:11,140 --> 00:02:18,119 30 00:02:18,139 --> 00:02:19,210 31 00:02:19,230 --> 00:02:23,290 When NASA first started talking about global warming, it was in 1988. 32 00:02:23,310 --> 00:02:25,890 1988 was also a record year. 33 00:02:25,910 --> 00:02:32,890 But with the record in now for 2015, 1988 is not even in the top 20 of warmest years. 34 00:02:32,910 --> 00:02:35,069