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IPCC Projections of Temperature and Precipitation in the 21st Century

New data visualizations from the NASA Center for Climate Simulation and NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio show how climate models - those used in the new report from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - estimate how temperature and precipitation patterns could change throughout the 21st century.

For the IPCC's Physical Science Basis and Summary for Policymakers reports, scientists referenced an international climate modeling effort to study how the Earth might respond to four different scenarios of how much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases would be emitted into the atmosphere throughout the 21st century. The Summary for Policymakers, the first official piece of the group's Fifth Assessment Report, was released Fri., Sept. 27.

That modeling effort, called the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), includes dozens of climate models from institutions around the world, including from NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

To produce visualizations that show temperature and precipitation changes similar to those included in the IPCC report, the NASA Center for Climate Simulation calculated mean model results for each of the four emissions scenarios. The final products are visual representations how much temperature and precipitation patterns would change through 2100 compared to the historical average from the end of the 20th century. The changes shown compare the model projections to the average temperature and precipitation benchmarks observed from 1971-2000. This baseline is different from the IPCC report, which uses a 1986-2005 baseline. Because the reference period from 1986-2005 was slightly warmer than 1971-2000, the visualizations are slightly different than those in the report, even though the same model data is used.

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Other multimedia items related to this story:
     CMIP5: 21st Century Temperature Scenarios (id 4105)
     CMIP5: 21st Century Precipitation Scenarios (id 4106)
     CMIP5: 21st Century Temperature and Precipitation Scenarios (id 4110)

Climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimate global temperature and precipitation patterns will change throughout the 21st century given current rising greenhouse gas concentrations. This visualization is based on a scenario in which carbon dioxide concentrations reach 670 parts per million by 2100, up from around 400 ppm today. Credit: NASA Center for Climate Simulation/Scientific Visualization Studio    Climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimate global temperature and precipitation patterns will change throughout the 21st century given current rising greenhouse gas concentrations. This visualization is based on a scenario in which carbon dioxide concentrations reach 670 parts per million by 2100, up from around 400 ppm today. Credit: NASA Center for Climate Simulation/Scientific Visualization Studio

For complete transcript, click here.
Duration: 3.9 minutes
Available formats:
  1280x720 (29.97 fps) QT         138 MB
  640x360 (29.97 fps) QT         94 MB
  960x540 (29.97 fps) MPEG-4   110 MB
  640x360 (29.97 fps) MPEG-4   44 MB
  320x240 (29.97 fps) MPEG-4   23 MB
  1280x720 (29.97 fps) WMV         128 MB
  720x480 (29.97 fps) WMV         108 MB
  1280x720 (59.94 fps) QT         3 GB
  960x540 (29.97 fps) WEBM         54 MB
  320x180     PNG           37 KB
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Short URL to This Page:http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/goto?11376
Animation Number:11376
Completed:2013-09-26
Animators:Alex Kekesi (GST) (Lead)
 Greg Shirah (NASA/GSFC)
Video Editor:Matthew R. Radcliff (USRA)
Narrator:Matthew R. Radcliff (USRA)
Producer:Matthew R. Radcliff (USRA)
Scientists:Gerald Potter (USRA)
 Laura Carriere (CSC)
 Jay Alder (USGS)
 Ellen Salmon (NASA/GSFC)
 Michael Wehner (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)
 Dean Williams (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)
Project Support:Jarrett Cohen (GST)
Writer:Patrick Lynch (Wyle Information Systems)
Series:Narrated Movies
Goddard TV Tape:G2013-080 -- IPCC Projections
Please give credit for this item to:
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
Additional credits should also go to the IPCC community, without whom these visualizations would not have been possible. Please click here for all the IPCC contributors.
 
Keywords:
SVS >> Global Warming
SVS >> HDTV
SVS >> Precipitation
SVS >> Temperature Trend
SVS >> Hyperwall
SVS >> Climate Change
SVS >> Climate Patterns
NASA Science >> Earth
 
 


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Many of our multimedia items use the GCMD keywords. These keywords can be found on the Internet with the following citation:
Olsen, L.M., G. Major, K. Shein, J. Scialdone, S. Ritz, T. Stevens, M. Morahan, A. Aleman, R. Vogel, S. Leicester, H. Weir, M. Meaux, S. Grebas, C.Solomon, M. Holland, T. Northcutt, R. A. Restrepo, R. Bilodeau, 2013. NASA/Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Earth Science Keywords. Version 8.0.0.0.0

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