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Potential Evaporation in North America Through 2100

This animation shows the projected increase in potential evaporation during the fire season through the year 2100, relative to 1980, based on the combined results of multiple climate models: MERRA data for 1980-2010 and an ensemble of 20 climate models for 2010-2100. The maximum increase across North America is about 1 mm/day by 2100. This concept, potential evaporation, is a measure of drying potential or "fire weather." An average increase of 1 mm/day over the whole year is a big change -- 1 mm/day increase in PE is considered to be an "extreme" event for fires, similar to the conditions in Colorado in 2012. By these projections, fire years like 2012 would be the new normal in regions like the western US by the end of the 21st century.
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Potential Evaporation with Respect to 1980    Potential Evaporation with Respect to 1980
Duration: 20.0 seconds
Available formats:
  1920x1080 Frames (Full)
  1920x1080 MPEG-4   4 MB
  1280x720   MPEG-4   2 MB
  1920x1080 JPEG         339 KB
  320x180     PNG           64 KB
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No Colorbar, No Dates    No Colorbar, No Dates
Duration: 20.0 seconds
Available formats:
  1920x1080 Frames (No cb no date)
  1920x1080 MPEG-4   4 MB
  1280x720   MPEG-4   2 MB
  1920x1080 JPEG         326 KB
How to play our movies


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Animation Number:4095
Animator:Trent L. Schindler (USRA) (Lead)
Producers:Alison Schuyler Ogden (NASA/GSFC)
 Michelle Handleman (USRA)
Scientist:Doug C. Morton (NASA/GSFC)
Platforms/Sensors/Data Sets:Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 None
Please give credit for this item to:
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
SVS >> Climate
GCMD >> Earth Science >> Climate Indicators >> Fire Weather Indices
SVS >> Model Data
SVS >> Climate Change
SVS >> Fire
SVS >> 2013 Fires

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Many of our multimedia items use the GCMD keywords. These keywords can be found on the Internet with the following citation:
Olsen, L.M., G. Major, K. Shein, J. Scialdone, S. Ritz, T. Stevens, M. Morahan, A. Aleman, R. Vogel, S. Leicester, H. Weir, M. Meaux, S. Grebas, C.Solomon, M. Holland, T. Northcutt, R. A. Restrepo, R. Bilodeau, 2013. NASA/Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Earth Science Keywords. Version logo - the U.S. Government's official Web portal. + Privacy Policy and Important Notices
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