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National Climate Assessment: 21st Century Temperature Scenarios

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is a central component of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). Every four years, the NCA is required to produce a report for Congress that integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the USGCRP; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. A draft of the Third National Climate Assessment report is available on the Federal Advisory Committee website. The final report is slated to be released in 2014.




These visualizations show projections of temperature anomalies from 2000 to 2100. For each year, the differences (or anomaly) between the model projected 30-year temperature average and the 1970-1999 average are shown. The dates displayed represent the center of the 30-year average; so, the 30-year spans are +/- 15 years from the displayed dates. Separate animations are shown for annual averages and for seasonal averages in the United States. Summer temperatures are displayed due to stakeholder interest in potential extreme heat events. The other seasons are included for completeness.

The data are from fifteen coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) CMIP3 multi-model dataset (PCMDI 2012). These models are CCSM3, CGCM3.1 (T47), CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.0, ECHAM5/MPI-OM, ECHO-G, GFDL-CM2.0, GFDL-CM2.1, INM-CM3.0, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3.2 (medres), MRI-CGCM2.3.2, PCM, UKMO-HadCM3, and UKMO-HadGEM. In those cases where an ensemble of simulations was available from a particular model, only a single ensemble member was used.


These climate model runs use assumptions about possible future development patterns and greenhouse gas emission rates. Two future scenarios are shown: B1 and A2.

  • In the B1 scenario, global environmental concerns are emphasized. B1 is a lower greenhouse gas emissions scenario.
  • In the A2 scenarios, future socio-economic development and regional issues are emphasized; and, worldwide cooperation on environmental issues is deemphasized. A2 is a higher greenhouse gas emissions scenario.


For each scenario (B1 and A2), five individual temperature anomaly animations are shown for annual, summer, fall, winter, and spring periods. So, there are a total of ten individual animations:

  • B1 Annual (lower emissions annual outlook)
  • A2 Annual (higher emissions annual outlook)
  • B1 Summer (lower emissions outlook of hottest months in US)
  • A2 Summer (higher emissions outlook of hottest months in US)
  • B1 Fall (lower emissions scenario)
  • A2 Fall (higher emissions scenario)
  • B1 Winter (lower emissions scenario)
  • A2 Winter (higher emissions scenario)
  • B1 Spring (lower emissions scenario)
  • A2 Spring (higher emissions scenario)


There is also a mosaic of the four most important animations shown for comparison.


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Another multimedia item related to this story:
     National Climate Assessment: 21st Century Precipitation Scenarios (id 4028)

Mosaic of annual and summer temperature visualizations    Mosaic of annual and summer temperature visualizations
Duration: 5.8 seconds
Available formats:
  1920x1080 MPEG-4   2 MB
  1280x720   MPEG-4   1 MB
  640x360     MPEG-4   511 KB
  1920x1080 Frames (Mosaic)
  1920x1080 JPEG         234 KB
  320x180     PNG           34 KB
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B1 scenario showing annual temperatures    B1 scenario showing annual temperatures
Duration: 5.8 seconds
Available formats:
  1280x720 (12 fps) MPEG-4   1 MB
  1920x1080 (12 fps) MPEG-4   2 MB
  640x360 (12 fps) MPEG-4   545 KB
  1920x1080 (30 fps) Frames (B1 temp Ann cbar)
  1280x720 (12 fps) MPEG-4   1 MB
  640x360 (12 fps) MPEG-4   543 KB
  1920x1080 (30 fps) Frames (B1 temp Ann)
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A2 scenario showing Annual temperature    A2 scenario showing Annual temperature
Duration: 5.8 seconds
Available formats:
  1280x720 (12 fps) MPEG-4   1 MB
  1920x1080 (12 fps) MPEG-4   3 MB
  640x360 (12 fps) MPEG-4   867 KB
  1920x1080 (30 fps) Frames (A2 temp Ann cbar)
  1280x720 (12 fps) MPEG-4   1 MB
  640x360 (12 fps) MPEG-4   851 KB
  1920x1080 (30 fps) Frames (A2 temp Ann)
How to play our movies


B1 scenario showing temperatures during June, July, and August (US summer)    B1 scenario showing temperatures during June, July, and August (US summer)
Duration: 5.8 seconds
Available formats:
  1280x720 (12 fps) MPEG-4   1 MB
  1920x1080 (12 fps) MPEG-4   2 MB
  640x360 (12 fps) MPEG-4   495 KB
  1920x1080 (30 fps) Frames (B1 temp JJA cbar)
  1280x720 (12 fps) MPEG-4   1 MB
  640x360 (12 fps) MPEG-4   488 KB
  1920x1080 (30 fps) Frames (B1 temp JJA)
How to play our movies


A2 scenario showing temperatures during June, July, and August (US summer)    A2 scenario showing temperatures during June, July, and August (US summer)
Duration: 5.8 seconds
Available formats:
  1280x720 (12 fps) MPEG-4   1 MB
  1920x1080 (12 fps) MPEG-4   2 MB
  640x360 (12 fps) MPEG-4   819 KB
  1920x1080 (30 fps) Frames (A2 temp JJA cbar)
  1280x720 (12 fps) MPEG-4   1 MB
  640x360 (12 fps) MPEG-4   801 KB
  1920x1080 (30 fps) Frames (A2 temp JJA)
How to play our movies


B1 scenario showing temperatures during September, October, November (US fall)    B1 scenario showing temperatures during September, October, November (US fall)
Duration: 5.8 seconds
Available formats:
  1280x720 (12 fps) MPEG-4   1 MB
  640x360 (12 fps) MPEG-4   789 KB
  1920x1080 (30 fps) Frames (B1 temp SON)
  1920x1080 (30 fps) Frames (B1 temp SON cbar)
How to play our movies


A2 scenario showing temperatures during September, October, November (US fall)    A2 scenario showing temperatures during September, October, November (US fall)
Duration: 5.8 seconds
Available formats:
  1280x720 (12 fps) MPEG-4   2 MB
  640x360 (12 fps) MPEG-4   1 MB
  1920x1080 (30 fps) Frames (A2 temp SON)
  1920x1080 (30 fps) Frames (A2 temp SON cbar)
How to play our movies


B1 scenario showing temperatures during December, January, February (US wimter)    B1 scenario showing temperatures during December, January, February (US wimter)
Duration: 5.8 seconds
Available formats:
  1280x720 (12 fps) MPEG-4   1 MB
  640x360 (12 fps) MPEG-4   946 KB
  1920x1080 (30 fps) Frames (B1 temp DJF)
  1920x1080 (30 fps) Frames (B1 temp DJF cbar)
How to play our movies


A2 scenario showing temperatures during December, January, February (US wimter)    A2 scenario showing temperatures during December, January, February (US wimter)
Duration: 5.8 seconds
Available formats:
  1280x720 (12 fps) MPEG-4   2 MB
  1280x720 (12 fps) MPEG-4   2 MB
  640x360 (12 fps) MPEG-4   1 MB
  1920x1080 (30 fps) Frames (A2 temp DJF)
  1920x1080 (30 fps) Frames (A2 temp DJF cbar)
How to play our movies


B1 scenario showing temperatures during March, April, May (US spring)    B1 scenario showing temperatures during March, April, May (US spring)
Duration: 5.8 seconds
Available formats:
  1280x720 (12 fps) MPEG-4   1 MB
  640x360 (12 fps) MPEG-4   663 KB
  1920x1080 (30 fps) Frames (B1 temp MAM)
  1920x1080 (30 fps) Frames (B1 temp MAM cbar)
How to play our movies


A2 scenario showing temperatures during March, April, May (US spring)    A2 scenario showing temperatures during March, April, May (US spring)
Duration: 5.8 seconds
Available formats:
  1280x720 (12 fps) MPEG-4   1 MB
  640x360 (12 fps) MPEG-4   951 KB
  1920x1080 (30 fps) Frames (A2 temp MAM)
  1920x1080 (30 fps) Frames (A2 temp MAM cbar)
How to play our movies



Temperature anomaly color bar in degrees F (lightest colors are near 0; darkest reds are near 15)
   Temperature anomaly color bar in degrees F (lightest colors are near 0; darkest reds are near 15)

Available formats:
  1024 x 256       PNG       25 KB

Short URL to This Page:http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/goto?4029
Animation Number:4029
Completed:2013-01-08
Animator:Greg Shirah (NASA/GSFC) (Lead)
Producer:Allison Leidner (USRA)
Scientists:Kenneth Kunkel (NOAA/NCDC,CICS-NC)
 Brooke Stewart (NOAA/NCDC,CICS-NC)
 Anne Waple (NOAA)
 Laura Stevens (NOAA/NCDC, CICS-NC)
Project Support:Andrew Buddenburg (NOAA/NCDC,CICS-NC)
Platform/Sensor/Data Set:Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) (2000 through 2100)
Series:National Climate Assessment
Please give credit for this item to:
National Climate Assessment and NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
 
Keywords:
SVS >> Climate
SVS >> HDTV
SVS >> Temperature
GCMD >> Earth Science >> Climate Indicators
GCMD >> Earth Science >> Atmosphere >> Atmospheric Temperature >> Temperature Tendency
 
 


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Many of our multimedia items use the GCMD keywords. These keywords can be found on the Internet with the following citation:
Olsen, L.M., G. Major, K. Shein, J. Scialdone, S. Ritz, T. Stevens, M. Morahan, A. Aleman, R. Vogel, S. Leicester, H. Weir, M. Meaux, S. Grebas, C.Solomon, M. Holland, T. Northcutt, R. A. Restrepo, R. Bilodeau, 2013. NASA/Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Earth Science Keywords. Version 8.0.0.0.0

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