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What Would have Happened to the Ozone Layer if Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been Regulated?

Led by NASA Goddard scientist Paul Newman, a team of atmospheric chemists simulated 'what might have been' if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and similar ozone-depleting chemicals were not banned through the Montreal Protocol. The comprehensive model -- including atmospheric chemical effects, wind changes, and solar radiation changes -- simulated what would happen to global concentrations of stratospheric ozone if CFCs were continually added to the atmosphere.

The visualizations below present two cases, from several different viewing positions: the 'world avoided' case, where the rate of CFC emission into the atmosphere is assumed to be that of the period before regulation, and the 'projected' case, which assumes the current rate of emission, post-regulation. Both cases extrapolate to the year 2065.

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Comparison between projected and world-avoided cases.    Comparison between projected and world-avoided cases.
Duration: 2.0 minutes
Available formats:
  1280x720   Frames (Side by side)
  1280x720   MPEG-2   62 MB
  512x288     MPEG-1   15 MB
  1280x720   MPEG-4   15 MB
  320x180     PNG           57 KB
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World-avoided case    World-avoided case
Duration: 2.0 minutes
Available formats:
  1280x720   Frames (Wa NP)
  1280x720   MPEG-2   109 MB
  512x288     MPEG-1   24 MB
  1280x720   MPEG-4   28 MB
  1280x720   JPEG         123 KB
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Projected case    Projected case
Duration: 2.0 minutes
Available formats:
  1280x720   Frames (F1 NP)
  1280x720   MPEG-2   123 MB
  512x288     MPEG-1   28 MB
  1280x720   MPEG-4   33 MB
  1280x720   JPEG         122 KB
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World-avoided case    World-avoided case
Duration: 2.0 minutes
Available formats:
  1280x720   Frames (Wa hemisphere)
  1280x720   MPEG-2   44 MB
  512x288     MPEG-1   8 MB
  1280x720   MPEG-4   11 MB
  1280x720   JPEG         59 KB
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Projected case    Projected case
Duration: 2.0 minutes
Available formats:
  1280x720   Frames (F1 hemisphere)
  1280x720   MPEG-2   45 MB
  512x288     MPEG-1   9 MB
  1280x720   MPEG-4   12 MB
  1280x720   JPEG         58 KB
How to play our movies


World-avoided case    World-avoided case
Duration: 2.0 minutes
Available formats:
  1280x720   Frames (Wa midlat)
  1280x720   MPEG-2   107 MB
  512x288     MPEG-1   23 MB
  1280x720   MPEG-4   24 MB
  1280x720   JPEG         138 KB
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Projected case    Projected case
Duration: 2.0 minutes
Available formats:
  1280x720   Frames (F1 midlat)
  1280x720   MPEG-2   115 MB
  512x288     MPEG-1   25 MB
  1280x720   MPEG-4   27 MB
  1280x720   JPEG         136 KB
How to play our movies


World-avoided case    World-avoided case
Duration: 2.0 minutes
Available formats:
  1280x720   Frames (Wa SP)
  1280x720   MPEG-2   71 MB
  512x288     MPEG-1   16 MB
  1280x720   MPEG-4   20 MB
  1280x720   JPEG         75 KB
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Projected case    Projected case
Duration: 2.0 minutes
Available formats:
  1280x720   Frames (F1 SP)
  1280x720   MPEG-2   73 MB
  512x288     MPEG-1   16 MB
  1280x720   MPEG-4   20 MB
  1280x720   JPEG         75 KB
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Years only    Years only

Available formats:
  1280x720   Frames (Dates)
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Colorbar
   Colorbar

Available formats:
  1200 x 250       PNG       18 KB
  320 x 66           PNG       10 KB


Interview with the scientist, Paul Newman.    Interview with the scientist, Paul Newman.

For complete transcript, click here.
Duration: 3.5 minutes
Available formats:
  512x288 (29.97 fps) MPEG-1   31 MB
  1280x720 (30 fps) QT         130 MB
  1280x720 (59.94 fps) QT         3 GB
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Comparison of the    Comparison of the "Projected" (Left Sphere) and the "World Avoided" (Right Sphere) if chlorofluorocarbons and other ozone-depleting chemicals were not banned through the Montreal Protocol. This sequence contains the year overlay and the colorbar.
Duration: 2.0 minutes
Available formats:
  1280x720   MPEG-4   56 MB
  1280x720   QT         3 GB
  1280x720   Frames (Composite)
  640x360     MPEG-4   19 MB
  1280x720   JPEG         83 KB
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This shorter version was encoded for Dr. Waleed Abdalatis's lecture on October 16, 2012 at the Library of Congress.  His lecture is titled    This shorter version was encoded for Dr. Waleed Abdalatis's lecture on October 16, 2012 at the Library

of Congress. His lecture is titled "Looking Homeward Toward Earth: The Power of Perspective".
Duration: 30.0 seconds
Available formats:
  1280x720   MPEG-4   24 MB
  1280x720   WMV         14 MB
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Visualization shows worlds with/without the Montreal Protocol, 1974-2065.    Visualization shows worlds with/without the Montreal Protocol, 1974-2065.

Available formats:
  Download     POWERPOINT 24 MB
  Download     KEYNOTE 25 MB

Short URL to This Page:http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/goto?3586
Animation Number:3586
Completed:2011-09-02
Animators:Trent L. Schindler (UMBC) (Lead)
 Lori Perkins (NASA/GSFC)
Interviewee:Paul Newman (NASA/GSFC)
Producer:Jefferson Beck (UMBC)
Scientist:Paul Newman (NASA/GSFC)
Series:Ozone
 Narrated Movies
Goddard TV Tape:G2009-018 -- Ozone World Avoided
Please give credit for this item to:
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
 
Keywords:
SVS >> HDTV
SVS >> Ozone
SVS >> Ozone Hole
SVS >> Ozone depletion
GCMD >> Earth Science >> Atmosphere >> Atmospheric Chemistry/Oxygen Compounds >> Ozone
SVS >> Copenhagen
SVS >> For Educators
SVS >> Atmosphere >> Winds >> Circulation
SVS >> Pollution >> Distribution
SVS >> Pollution Index
SVS >> CFCs
NASA Science >> Earth
SVS >> Presentation
 
 


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Many of our multimedia items use the GCMD keywords. These keywords can be found on the Internet with the following citation:
Olsen, L.M., G. Major, K. Shein, J. Scialdone, S. Ritz, T. Stevens, M. Morahan, A. Aleman, R. Vogel, S. Leicester, H. Weir, M. Meaux, S. Grebas, C.Solomon, M. Holland, T. Northcutt, R. A. Restrepo, R. Bilodeau, 2013. NASA/Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Earth Science Keywords. Version 8.0.0.0.0

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