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Space Weather Forecasting: Active Times Ahead
SOHO/MDI magnetograms combined with the Potential-Field Source-Surface (PFSS) model can be used to generate a model of magnetic field lines in the lower part of the solar corona. When these models are compared to the loops visible in TRACE imagery, a bad match (as in this case) indicates that the region will generate flare events over the next few days.

This movie zooms in to the solar surface then fades to a time varying magnetogram. The PFSS model is overlaid on the source magnetic field, then compared to the TRACE loops. Following the region for several days, we see a major flare event.    This movie zooms in to the solar surface then fades to a time varying magnetogram. The PFSS model is overlaid on the source magnetic field, then compared to the TRACE loops. Following the region for several days, we see a major flare event.
Duration: 27.0 seconds
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  640x480 (30 fps) MPEG-1   14 MB
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A full-disk view of the Sun    A full-disk view of the Sun

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A magnetogram closeup view of an active region. White indicates north magnetic polarity, black is south.    A magnetogram closeup view of an active region. White indicates north magnetic polarity, black is south.

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Overlay of the PFSS model on the active region.    Overlay of the PFSS model on the active region.

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The PFSS model is a poor match for the TRACE coronal loops.    The PFSS model is a poor match for the TRACE coronal loops.

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A very bright flare event occurs within twelve hours.    A very bright flare event occurs within twelve hours.

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The region continues to show activity.    The region continues to show activity.

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The region continues to show strong changes.    The region continues to show strong changes.

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Animation Number:3212
Animator:Tom Bridgman (Lead)
Studio:SVS
Completed:2005-08-16
Scientists:Carolus J. Schrijver (LMSAL)
 Marc L. DeRosa (LMSAL)
Writer:William Steigerwald (NASA/GSFC)
Instruments:SOHO/MDI
 TRACE
Data set:Potential-Field Source-Surface
Data Collected:PFSS: 2000/07/14T00:55:00, TRACE 195A: 2000/07/14T00:17:12-2000/07/17T22:24:21, MDI Continuum: 2000/07/07T23:59:31-2000/07/10T11:11:31, MDI Magnetogram: 2000/07/08T14:24:01-2000/07/13T23:59:01
Series:Space Weather Forecasting
Keywords:
SVS >> Magnetic Fields
SVS >> Solar Active Region
DLESE >> Space science
GCMD >> EARTH SCIENCE >> Sun-earth Interactions >> Solar Activity
GCMD >> EARTH SCIENCE >> Sun-earth Interactions >> Solar Activity >> Solar Active Regions
GCMD >> EARTH SCIENCE >> Sun-earth Interactions >> Solar Activity >> Solar Flares
SVS >> Space Weather
More Information on this topic available at:
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/solarsystem/clear_weather_feature.html
 
 
Please give credit for this item to
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio


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