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Space Weather Forecasting: Quiet Times Ahead
SOHO/MDI magnetograms combined with the Potential-Field Source-Surface (PFSS) model can be used to generate a model of magnetic field lines in the lower part of the solar corona. When these models are compared to the loops visible in TRACE imagery, a good match (as in this case) indicates that the region will not generate flare events over the next few days.

This movie zooms in to the solar surface then fades to a time varying magnetogram. The PFSS model is overlaid on the source magnetic field, then compared to the TRACE loops. Following the region for several days, we see no flare events.    This movie zooms in to the solar surface then fades to a time varying magnetogram. The PFSS model is overlaid on the source magnetic field, then compared to the TRACE loops. Following the region for several days, we see no flare events.
Duration: 21.0 seconds
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  640x480 (30 fps) MPEG-1   11 MB
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A full-disk view of the Sun.    A full-disk view of the Sun.

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A magnetogram closeup view of an active region. White indicates north magnetic polarity, black is south.    A magnetogram closeup view of an active region. White indicates north magnetic polarity, black is south.

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Overlay of the PFSS model on the active region.    Overlay of the PFSS model on the active region.

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In this case, we see the PFSS model matches the TRACE coronal loops very well.    In this case, we see the PFSS model matches the TRACE coronal loops very well.

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The region continues to show changes...    The region continues to show changes...

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but over two days later, no flares have occurred.    but over two days later, no flares have occurred.

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Animation Number:3211
Animator:Tom Bridgman (Lead)
Studio:SVS
Completed:2005-08-16
Scientists:Carolus J. Schrijver (LMSAL)
 Marc L. DeRosa (LMSAL)
Writer:William Steigerwald (NASA/GSFC)
Instruments:SOHO/MDI
 TRACE
Data set:Potential-Field Source-Surface
Data Collected:PFSS: 2001/03/15T00:00:09, TRACE 171A: 2001/03/15T01:34:57-2001/03/17T22:07:41, MDI Continuum: 2001/03/06T23:59:31-2001/03/09T11:11:31, MDI Magnetogram: 2001/03/07T15:59:01-2001/03/15T00:00:01
Series:Space Weather Forecasting
Goddard TV Tape:G2005-060
Keywords:
SVS >> Magnetic Fields
SVS >> Solar Active Region
DLESE >> Space science
GCMD >> EARTH SCIENCE >> Sun-earth Interactions >> Solar Activity
GCMD >> EARTH SCIENCE >> Sun-earth Interactions >> Solar Activity >> Solar Active Regions
SVS >> Space Weather
More Information on this topic available at:
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/solarsystem/clear_weather_feature.html
 
 
Please give credit for this item to
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio


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