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\"Natural droughts like the 1930s Dust Bowl and the current drought in the Southwest have historically lasted maybe a decade or a little less,\" said Ben Cook, climate scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University in New York City, and lead author of the study. \"What these results are saying is we're going to get a drought similar to those events, but it is probably going to last at least 30 to 35 years.\"

According to Cook, the current likelihood of a megadrought, a drought lasting more than three decades, is 12 percent. If greenhouse gas emissions stop increasing in the mid-21st century, as in a climate scenario called RCP 4.5, Cook and his colleagues project the likelihood of megadrought to reach more than 60 percent. However, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase along current trajectories throughout the 21st century, climate scenario RCP 8.5, there is an 80 percent likelihood of a decades-long megadrought in the Southwest and Central Plains between the years 2050 and 2099.

The scientists analyzed a drought severity index and two soil moisture data sets from 17 climate models that were run for both emissions scenarios. The high emissions scenario projects the equivalent of an atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration of 1,370 parts per million (ppm) by 2100, while the moderate emissions scenario projects the equivalent of 650 ppm by 2100. Currently, the atmosphere contains 400 ppm of CO2.", "items": [], "extra_data": {} }, { "id": 338573, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4270/#media_group_338573", "widget": "Video player", "title": "", "caption": "", "description": "Soil moisture (surface down to 30cm) from 1950 to 2095 based on a 10 year moving average of 17 CMIP5 models using a moderate future emissions scenario (RCP 4.5). 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The research found the risk of severe droughts in those regions would increase if human-produced greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase.\"Natural droughts like the 1930s Dust Bowl and the current drought in the Southwest have historically lasted maybe a decade or a little less,\" said Ben Cook, climate scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University in New York City, and lead author of the study. \"What these results are saying is we're going to get a drought similar to those events, but it is probably going to last at least 30 to 35 years.\" || ", "release_date": "2015-02-12T14:00:00-05:00", "update_date": "2023-05-03T13:49:59.427750-04:00", "main_image": { "id": 446437, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a011700/a011772/Drought_INST4_print.jpg", "filename": "Drought_INST4_print.jpg", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "For complete transcript, click here.", "width": 1024, "height": 1024, "pixels": 1048576 } }, { "id": 11773, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/11773/", "page_type": "Produced Video", "title": "NASA On Air: NASA Study Finds Carbon Emissions Could Dramatically Increase Risk Of U.S. Megadroughts (2/12/2015)", "description": "LEAD: NASA study finds carbon emissions could dramatically increase risk of U.S. megadroughts.1. Analysis of current greenhouse gas emission trends indicate that the Southwest and Central Plains have an 80% likelihood of megadroughts between the years 2050 and 2099.2. This is the first study to compare future drought projections directly to drought records from the last 1000 years.TAG: The 1930’s Dust Bowl only lasted a decade. 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Analysis of current greenhouse gas emission trends indicate that the Southwest and Central Plains have an 80% likelihood of megadroughts between the years 2050 and 2099.2. This is the first study to compare future drought projections directly to drought records from the last 1000 years.TAG: The 1930’s Dust Bowl only lasted a decade. These new results indicate future droughts may last at least 30 to 35 years.", "width": 1024, "height": 576, "pixels": 589824 } }, { "id": 11776, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/11776/", "page_type": "Produced Video", "title": "Megadroughts Projected for American West", "description": "For complete transcript, click here. || 21st_Century_Drought_final-H264_Good_1280x720_29.97_print.jpg (1024x576) [149.5 KB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final-H264_Good_1280x720_29.9700052_print.jpg (1024x576) [144.5 KB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final-H264_Good_1280x720_29.97_searchweb.png (320x180) [109.6 KB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final-H264_Good_1280x720_29.97_web.png (320x180) [109.6 KB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final-H264_Good_1280x720_29.97_thm.png (80x40) [7.7 KB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final_appletv_subtitles.m4v (960x540) [75.4 MB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final-H264_Good_1280x720_29.97.mov (1280x720) [183.0 MB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final-H264_Good_1280x720_29.97.webm (1280x720) [20.6 MB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final_1280x720.wmv (1280x720) [84.1 MB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final_appletv.m4v (960x540) [75.4 MB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final_youtube_hq.mov (1280x720) [183.1 MB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final-H264_Best_1280x720_59.94.mov (1280x720) [1.6 GB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final_prores.mov (1280x720) [2.6 GB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final_ipod_lg.m4v (640x360) [30.5 MB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final_720x480.wmv (720x480) [74.9 MB] || 21st_Century_Drought.en_US.srt [3.9 KB] || 21st_Century_Drought.en_US.vtt [3.9 KB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final_nasaportal.mov (640x360) [68.5 MB] || 21st_Century_Drought_final_ipod_sm.mp4 (320x240) [15.2 MB] || ", "release_date": "2015-02-12T13:30:00-05:00", "update_date": "2023-05-03T13:49:59.763802-04:00", "main_image": { "id": 446286, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a011700/a011776/21st_Century_Drought_final-H264_Good_1280x720_29.97_print.jpg", "filename": "21st_Century_Drought_final-H264_Good_1280x720_29.97_print.jpg", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "For complete transcript, click here.", "width": 1024, "height": 576, "pixels": 589824 } } ], "sources": [], "products": [ { "id": 13253, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/13253/", "page_type": "Produced Video", "title": "A Drier Future Sets the Stage for More Wildfires", "description": "Music: Motion Blur by Sam Dodson, Spring Into Life by Oliver Worth, and Critical Pathway by Rik Carter. Complete transcript available. || Camp_Fire_oli_2018312_Landsat.jpg (3017x2011) [1.3 MB] || Camp_Fire_oli_2018312_Landsat_searchweb.png (320x180) [119.1 KB] || Camp_Fire_oli_2018312_Landsat_thm.png (80x40) [7.6 KB] || DroughtsFires_V2.mov (1920x1080) [3.2 GB] || DroughtsFires_V2.mp4 (1920x1080) [158.2 MB] || DroughtsFires_V2.webm (1920x1080) [17.2 MB] || DroughtsFires_V2.en_US.srt [2.7 KB] || DroughtsFires_V2.en_US.vtt [2.7 KB] || ", "release_date": "2019-07-09T10:50:00-04:00", "update_date": "2023-05-03T13:45:50.324758-04:00", "main_image": { "id": 394610, "url": "https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a013200/a013253/Camp_Fire_oli_2018312_Landsat.jpg", "filename": "Camp_Fire_oli_2018312_Landsat.jpg", "media_type": "Image", "alt_text": "Music: Motion Blur by Sam Dodson, Spring Into Life by Oliver Worth, and Critical Pathway by Rik Carter. 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